Nov. 23, 2024, 1:56 p.m.

Finance

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The European Central Bank cut interest rates by another 25 basis points

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Yesterday, the ECB cut the deposit facility rate by 25 points to 3.5 per cent and cut its main refinancing and marginal lending rates by 60 basis points, in line with market expectations. The move comes after the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points in June and held fire in July. The current slowdown in inflation and economic weakness in the euro zone, with headline inflation hitting a three-year low of 2.2 percent in August and the manufacturing PMI falling to an eight-month low, are the reasons for another rate cut.

At this point, the global interest rate cut cycle is gaining more momentum, and about half of the central banks of developed economies have started the interest rate cut cycle, and even are accelerating the process of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the ECB's interest rate cut also has a great impact on the economy and other factors, one is the impact on economic growth, interest rate cuts reduce the financing costs of enterprises, making it easier for enterprises to obtain loans to expand production, technology research and development and market expansion and other activities, thus promoting economic growth. The lower cost of personal loans and the increased purchasing power of consumers will help increase consumer spending and further boost economic growth. Interest rate cuts can also enhance market confidence, improve consumer consumption expectations, and promote the prosperity of the consumer market. At the same time, interest rate cuts also help guide capital flow to industries and enterprises with higher growth potential and innovation capabilities, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, the interest rate cut may also lead to the depreciation of the euro. Although the depreciation of the euro may increase the cost of imports, it may also prompt eurozone countries to seek more import sources and substitutes, reduce their dependence on the single market, and promote the diversification of imports and improve the export competitiveness of eurozone countries. However, the depreciation of the euro makes the products of the eurozone more competitive in the international market, which helps to expand the scale of exports and increase foreign exchange earnings.

The second is the impact on financial markets, interest rate cuts are usually seen as good news for the stock and bond markets. Lower interest rates have helped fuel the stock market rally by lowering funding costs for companies and raising earnings expectations. At the same time, interest rate cuts also help stabilize the bond market, reduce the financing cost of bonds, and provide more financing channels for the government and enterprises. A rate cut could lead to a decline in the value of the euro because lower interest rates make the currency less attractive, making it likely that investors will move money into other currencies with higher interest rates. The depreciation of the euro may improve the export competitiveness of eurozone countries, but it may also increase the cost of imports and have a certain impact on the domestic economy. A rate cut could cause European capital to flow to other high-interest regions or countries in search of higher investment returns. Such capital flows may have some impact on global financial markets and increase volatility in financial markets.

The third is the impact on international trade and monetary policy. The interest rate reduction policy helps to increase the export volume of eurozone countries and increase foreign exchange earnings, which has a positive impact on economic growth. A weaker euro could also lead to higher import costs, putting some pressure on import-dependent businesses and consumers. However, in the long run, it will also help promote the eurozone countries to accelerate industrial upgrading and transformation and enhance the competitiveness of domestic industries. The rate cut provides the ECB with more policy flexibility to take more aggressive monetary policy measures in the future in the face of downward pressure on the economy. This will also help stabilize global economic growth and strengthen prevention of economic risks. The decision to cut interest rates also reflects the expectations and judgments of the European Central Bank on the future economic outlook. In the future, whether the ECB will continue to cut interest rates, the extent of interest rate cuts and the number of interest rate cuts will be affected by a variety of factors, including economic growth, inflation levels, the job market and so on.

To sum up, the impact of the ECB's 25 basis point rate cut is complex and far-reaching. It will not only help stimulate economic growth and enhance market confidence, but also may have some impact on financial markets, international trade and monetary policy. Therefore, when evaluating the effect of interest rate reduction policy, it is necessary to consider various factors comprehensively, and pay close attention to subsequent economic data and market reaction.

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