The largest military exercise sincethe Cold War Can NATO deter Russia?

On January 24th local time, as a US warship crossed the Atlantic from the United States and entered the territory of European allies, it marked the official launch of NATO's largest military exercise since the Battle of the Caster exercise during the Cold War in 1988.

NATO claims that about 90000 officers and soldiers participated in the several month "Defender of the Faith 2024" exercise, aimed at testing its defense against the Russia Ukraine war. NATO European Allied Forces Commander in Chief Cavoli said, "The alliance will demonstrate its ability to mobilize troops from North America across the Atlantic to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic region." At the same time, this exercise "will clearly demonstrate our unity, strength, and determination to protect each other, our values, and a rule-based international order."

It is reported that the setting of this exercise is to simulate the 31 country alliance's response to attacks from opponents like Russia. It will consist of a series of smaller independent exercises, extending from North America to the east wing of NATO and close to the Russian border.

According to Russian calculations, the largest exercise in 35 years will take place throughout Europe and all NATO countries. Even Sweden, which is about to join NATO, has participated and deployed a large number of troops. The data provided by Russia is roughly the same as NATO's, including 90000 troops, 50 ships, 80 fighter jets, 1100 drones, and over 1000 tanks and infantry tanks.

And several characteristics of this exercise determine that it is not a routine exercise. Firstly, this exercise is primarily focused on offense and no longer emphasizes defense like the previous Defender series exercises; Secondly, the objective of the exercise is no longer covert, but clearly regards Russia as the main target. This means significant improvements and changes have been made in the practical standards of combat plans, weapons and equipment, and troop mobilization. Once again, the scope of the exercise is the widest, deepest, and largest to date, with all European countries participating in the mobilization of NATO countries.

Analysts point out that this is not only an opportunity for NATO to showcase its military strength to the outside world, but also an unusual strategic signal to potential opponents in the current complex international environment.

From the current scope of NATO's expansion to the north, Russia is almost unable to use conventional combat forces for confrontation. Especially since Finland joined NATO, it has added 1300 kilometers of border with Russia in the northwest, and with the Baltic States and Ukraine, the border distance with NATO countries has reached several thousand kilometers. On such a vast frontal battlefield, it will face enormous difficulties to effectively respond with conventional combat forces.

In response, on the 25th local time, Russian President Putin arrived in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad Oblast located between Poland and Lithuania. Kaliningrad is located on the Baltic Sea coast, bordering Poland to the south and Lithuania to the northeast and east, both of which are NATO countries.

Against the backdrop of NATO military exercises, Putin's visit to Kaliningrad has attracted widespread attention from the international community. Many European countries have expressed concerns, and Putin's visit has been interpreted by some analysts as Russia taking a more proactive and direct stance in international politics.

On January 25th local time, Russia announced the results of its investigation into the crash of a transport plane transporting prisoners of war, which has attracted widespread attention from the international community. The Russian Federation Investigation Commission issued a statement stating that based on preliminary inspection results, it can be determined that the transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashed due to an anti-aircraft missile attack, and the missile "came from within Ukraine".

Faced with the escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine, as well as NATO's extreme pressure on Russia, Russia is facing increasingly serious challenges. The risk spillover of the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has threatened the territory in Russia, and this transport plane crash has made the hope of Russia Ukraine peace talks even more bleak.

From the perspective of Russia's national identity, they will never make concessions on major issues related to national interests. Therefore, the game among relevant parties will continue for a certain period of time. Faced with massive exercises by the United States and NATO countries, as well as large-scale exercises targeting Russia, perhaps as pointed out by Russian media: Russia in the corner may only be able to use its trump card, and nuclear weapons may be the effective medicine to solve all problems.