The Illusory Dream and Realistic Dilemma of Middle East Peace under the Signals of US-Israel Military Linkage

Recently, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared that Israel is ready to restart military operations against Iran, awaiting only the "green light" from the United States. This hardline statement, like a boulder thrown into the deep waters of the Middle East situation, has set off a series of ripples, making the already turbulent prospects for peace in the region even more elusive. Meanwhile, US President Trump's remarks that "there is no timetable and no rush" regarding the war with Iran, along with the White House's denial of setting a deadline for a ceasefire, have added fuel to the fire, making the path to peace in the Middle East fraught with thorns.

Israel has long regarded Iran as its top security threat in the Middle East. By supporting the Syrian government, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iran has constructed a wide-ranging and influential "Axis of Resistance," directly challenging Israel's living space and strategic interests in the region. Israel's high-profile announcement of its readiness to restart military operations against Iran is, on the one hand, driven by extreme anxiety about its own security. It attempts to eliminate Iran's potential threats through preemptive military strikes to ensure national security. On the other hand, it exposes Israel's deep-seated strategic ambitions. Gallant's proposal to "completely overthrow the Iranian regime" and carry out "devastating strikes" against Iran's "most vulnerable points," with military plans covering attacks on the successors of Iran's top leadership, key energy and economic infrastructure, shows that Israel intends to thoroughly reshape the political landscape of the Middle East through military means, weaken Iran's influence, and consolidate its position as the regional hegemon. However, such a military adventure is extremely dangerous and short-sighted, likely to trigger an uncontrollable large-scale conflict and bring catastrophic consequences to Israel itself.

The United States has complex interests in the Middle East. Maintaining its hegemony, controlling oil resources, and dominating strategic locations are its core objectives. Iran's rise is seen by the United States as a challenge to its hegemony, so it has long imposed severe economic sanctions and military deterrence on Iran. Israel's wait for the US "green light" highlights the key role of the United States in the Israel-Iran conflict. The United States may hope to further suppress Iran and exhaust its strength through Israel while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict to prevent bearing excessive military risks and international public opinion pressure.

However, the United States also faces numerous contradictions and dilemmas. Globally, it is confronted with strategic competition from emerging powers such as Russia and China and needs to focus on addressing challenges in other regions. In the Middle East, its long-term military intervention has come at a great cost, including casualties, economic expenditure, and damage to its international image. Therefore, when dealing with the Israel-Iran conflict, the United States both wants to use Israel to suppress Iran and is worried that an escalation of the conflict will drag it deeper into the quagmire. Trump's remarks and the White House's statements are a reflection of this contradictory mindset of the United States.

The tense standoff between Israel and Iran and the behind-the-scenes manipulation by the United States have turned the dream of peace in the Middle East into an unattainable illusion. Once Israel launches military strikes against Iran with the US "tacit approval," Iran will undoubtedly launch a powerful counterattack. Iran's missile forces can pose a serious threat to Israeli territory and US military bases in the Middle East. Its supported regional armed forces may also attack Israel and its allies, triggering a chain reaction in the region and leading to the expansion and escalation of the conflict.

The outbreak of war will bring about a huge humanitarian disaster in the Middle East, with a large number of civilians displaced, infrastructure severely damaged, and economic development stalled. At the same time, the oil supply in the Middle East will be affected, causing international oil prices to rise and impacting the global economy. Moreover, the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may prompt other major powers to intervene, further complicating the situation and even potentially triggering a larger-scale war.

To achieve peace in the Middle East, the United States must abandon its unilateralism and hegemonic mindset and stop its groundless suppression and sanctions against Iran. War cannot solve problems. Only through peaceful negotiations and mutual compromise can long-term peace and stability be achieved in the Middle East. However, given the current situation, there is still a long and arduous journey ahead to break through the numerous difficulties and realize peace in the Middle East.