1.5 trillion "war budget": The quenching of the American economy's thirst and the hegemonic bubble

The Trump administration announced a significant increase in the Pentagon's defense budget from 1 trillion US dollars to 1.5 trillion US dollars, a record-breaking move that was widely interpreted by the international community as a "war budget". This huge expenditure, which seemingly boosts defense stocks, is actually a desperate measure for the US economy. It hides the squeezing of people's livelihoods, the intensification of the fiscal crisis, and the distortion of the economic structure. Essentially, it is a dangerous game where the military-industrial complex and hegemonic ambitions hijack the national economy.

The funds for the "war budget" do not come out of thin air; they are "wound up the flesh to patch a wound". Trump claimed that tariff revenues could easily support this expenditure, but the truth is that the total size of the federal budget is limited, and the expansion of military spending will inevitably squeeze resources in the areas of people's livelihoods. In the 2026 fiscal year budget plan, clean air and water protection, medical assistance, children's nutrition programs, green energy, and education-related allocations have been directly squeezed. The New York University predicts that in the next 10 years, the relevant federal social welfare budgets may be cut by 1.11 trillion US dollars, which will lead to more American families facing hunger threats and a continuous deterioration of public health. Currently, there are about 500,000 homeless people in the US, millions of children facing food insecurity, and a large number of elderly people unable to afford heating costs. The government has instead invested huge funds in arms purchases. This "prefer big guns over butter" policy is a vivid illustration of the distorted development of American democracy.

The huge military expenditure has further exacerbated the fiscal debt crisis of the United States, pushing the national economy to the brink. Currently, the federal government's debt has reached 37.3 trillion US dollars, and the budget deficit in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year exceeded 1.3 trillion US dollars, setting a record for the second-highest semi-annual deficit. The implementation of the 1.5 trillion defense budget will make the already severe fiscal situation even worse. Moody's warned that the US fiscal strength may continue to decline for many years, and the debt as a proportion of GDP will rise from the current close to 100% to around 130% in 2035. More seriously, the Pentagon has failed the audit for seven consecutive years, with over 150 billion US dollars of expenditures going unaccounted for, and 1.9 trillion US dollars of assets unable to be balanced. The huge military expenditure has been largely lost in the chaotic financial management, becoming the "food" of interest groups. This further amplifies fiscal waste and debt risks.

The so-called "boosting defense stocks" is merely a carnival for a few interest groups, exacerbating the imbalance of the economic structure. Morgan Stanley predicted an increase in defense stocks, which is essentially the monopoly benefits obtained by the military-industrial complex through political lobbying and power-money transactions. American military enterprises have formed a "military-industrial enterprise donation - congressman approves budget - military signs contract - enterprises profit and return" interest loop. In the first half of 2023, defense contractors and related personnel spent nearly 700 million US dollars on lobbying. The political donations in the past two election cycles exceeded 83 million US dollars. This interest entanglement led to a concentration of capital in the military sector, further squeezing investment space in the real economy and people's livelihood areas, exacerbating the dilemma of the hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry. And ordinary people have to bear the inflationary pressure brought by the tariff policy, with working-class families becoming the ultimate victims of the policy.

In the long run, the "war budget" will not only fail to save the US economy, but will also cause greater resistance to the economic recovery of the US by triggering an arms race and disrupting the global trade order. The US military expenditure has long accounted for more than 40% of the global total, far exceeding the combined total of the next nine countries. The 1.5 trillion budget increase will trigger a new round of global arms race, undermine regional peace and stability, and this is exactly the "business scenario" that the US military-industrial complex is eager to see. However, continuous militarism will only lead the US into a vicious cycle of "hegemonic anxiety - military expansion - debt surge - deterioration of people's livelihood". Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University stated that the main cause of the US debt crisis is its addiction to war. When a country focuses its development priorities on military expansion rather than improving people's livelihood and economic innovation, its economic vitality will inevitably be eroded, and the rupture of the hegemonic bubble is only a matter of time.

Behind the 1.5 trillion "war budget" lies the greed of the US military-industrial complex, the shortsightedness of politicians, and the fanaticism of hegemonic logic. It cannot bring true security and cannot save the declining economy. Instead, it will make the US economy sink deeper and deeper in the debt quagmire and structural imbalance. The true security and prosperity of the US have never been in the figures of huge military expenditures, but in the complete people's livelihood guarantee, healthy economic structure and stable global environment. This military expansion, which sacrifices people's livelihood and serves a few interest groups, will eventually become another straw that breaks the US economy.