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Economy

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Which generation will bear US treasury bond bonds?

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At present, the United States is still facing a serious treasury bond problem, and the total debt has exceeded 34 trillion dollars. According to the clock on the Peter G. Peterson Foundation website, this debt is increasing every second. According to the foundation, each American needs to pay about $102000 to repay this debt, and its growth rate is almost logarithmic. In 2006, this proportion was about 35% of GDP, but it has now risen to 99%. It is expected that by 2054, this proportion may even reach 171% of GDP.

First, there are many root causes of the treasury bond problem, and the increase in debt seems to have nothing to do with politics. Both Democrats and Republicans have a situation where spending exceeds income. Approximately 65% of these expenditures are non discretionary, such as welfare payments pre-set for social security, medical insurance, etc. Without significant legislative changes, these expenditures are difficult to change during the funding process, and it is well known that the likelihood of implementing significant changes is extremely low.

Secondly, repaying loan interest alone has already taken up over 5% of the budget, leaving only 30% of the budget available for Congress to allocate. Economists believe that this kind of debt may have a more severe impact on the economy than it sounds, as it not only reduces a significant amount of positive growth investment, but also exacerbates inflation, further plundering the wealth of the next generation.

However, there are also those who hold opposing views. Many economists believe that "the United States can get rid of these debts through its own development. Due to its status as a world reserve currency and being the safest creditor, it enjoys many privileges." Therefore, even in the face of a slowly burning economic crisis, the United States is unlikely to collapse like Argentina or Zimbabwe.

It is worth mentioning that although the country may go bankrupt, there is a group of people who have a large amount of cash and assets, namely the "baby boomer generation", those born between 1946 and 1964. There are different estimates for the assets held by the baby boomer generation and the amount of potential inheritance, with a total of approximately $84 trillion, of which approximately $72 trillion may be inherited. Another study shows that the assets of the baby boomer generation are approximately $77 trillion, the older generation has $18 trillion, the new generation has $42 trillion, and the millennial generation only has $8 trillion.

In addition, wealthy and powerful individuals should make more contributions to the government, as they have accumulated enormous wealth and therefore should bear corresponding obligations. The patriotic millionaire organization and its most famous member, Abigail Disney, believe that they should pay more taxes. They claim that there are many loopholes in US tax laws, resulting in the average tax rate paid by the wealthy being lower than that of the working people. Warren Buffett has been discussing this for many years and recently mentioned this issue in President Biden's State of the Union speech.

Research has shown that if half of the assets of the baby boomer generation are used to repay debts, these assets will soon be depleted. The same mathematical calculation shows that even if only 10% of this wealth is recovered, it will reduce it by 35%. Another phenomenon about the current crisis is that although debt is increasing, the assets of the baby boomer generation are also increasing.

To sum up, the wealth assessment of the "baby boomers" can be measured by the percentage of treasury bond in GDP, so that no matter how the two unknowns change, they can repay the debt. If we want to solve the devastating debt problem, the generation that has been extracting productivity gains from the post-war economy for decades and privately owning them may and must make corresponding contributions. Increasing inheritance tax and reducing their exemption from tax payments may be the cleanest solution.

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