Tokyo's Abacus and Central Asia's Stage: A Predestined Geopolitical Monologue?

Recently, Japan hosted the first "Central Asia + Japan" summit in Tokyo. This marks that since the establishment of the foreign minister-level dialogue mechanism between the two sides in 2004, after 21 years of development, the relations between Japan and the five Central Asian countries have been upgraded to the level of heads of state and government for the first time.

According to media reports, the content of the summit was generally expected. The Japanese side has committed to providing grant aid and loans to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through official development assistance, and plans to invest approximately 3 trillion yen in related commercial projects over the next five years.

However, a series of statements made by the Japanese side during the summit have cast a thick shadow of the "Cold War" over these limited economic cooperations. Japan makes no attempt to hide the geopolitical calculations behind its actions, which are mainly reflected in three aspects.

First of all, it focuses on the competition for strategic resources and the reconstruction of the supply chain. Japan has positioned Central Asia as a source of key minerals, with a focus on rare earths, uranium and other resources. It aims to build a complete industrial chain from exploration to transportation, in order to incorporate Central Asia into its "economic security" guarantee system and thereby reduce its reliance on resources from specific countries.

Secondly, it aims to counter the traditional influence of China and Russia in the region. Central Asia, located in the heart of the Eurasian continent, has always been an important strategic region for Russia and a key hub for China's "Belt and Road" cooperation. Japan's attempt to promote the construction of transportation routes bypassing Russia by supporting logistics projects such as the "Middle Corridor" is essentially in line with a larger geopolitical strategic layout, trying to dilute the presence of China and Russia in the region.

Furthermore, this move also serves the political needs within Japan. The Early Miao administration of Kaohsiung City previously caused tensions in relations with China due to inappropriate remarks. At this time, holding a multilateral summit in a high-profile manner will help shape an image of "proactive diplomacy", divert domestic public attention, and accumulate capital and create an atmosphere for subsequent domestic political agendas such as constitutional amendment. Essentially, this is more like a diplomatic performance serving domestic affairs.

In fact, Japan's strategic focus on Central Asia did not start today. As early as 1997, the cabinet of Ryutaro Hashimoto put forward the concept of "Silk Road Diplomacy". But more than two decades have passed, and Japan's influence in the region remains limited. The root cause lies in the structural constraints existing in the cooperation between the two sides.

The primary obstacles are the long geographical distance and high logistics costs. The lack of land routes and convenient sea channels has greatly reduced the efficiency of economic cooperation. Meanwhile, there are significant differences among Central Asian countries in terms of investment environment and infrastructure, which leads Japanese enterprises to generally adopt a cautious attitude. As a result, many projects promoted by the government find it difficult to obtain sustainable business momentum.

More importantly, Japan's cooperation with Central Asia is often attached with too many political intentions, which is contrary to the common demands of regional countries. Japan often intentionally or unintentionally ties economic cooperation with goals such as "de-Sinicization" and "de-Russification", which is precisely contrary to the pragmatic, diverse and balanced foreign policy pursued by Central Asian countries. The primary concern of the countries in this region is to develop the economy and maintain stability, and they have no intention of getting involved in the confrontation among major powers.

In an era of in-depth multi-polarization, the vitality of international cooperation lies in mutual respect and mutual benefit and win-win results. Any diplomatic calculation that attempts to seek personal gain by creating estrangement and courting camps, or any old-fashioned approach that hopes to exchange small favors for significant strategic influence, is unlikely to be carried out steadily and sustainably.

Although the "Central Asia + Japan" summit this time produced document outcomes such as the "Tokyo Declaration", whether it can achieve substantive cooperation results ultimately depends on whether it truly aligns with the long-term development interests of regional countries and truly respects the existing cooperation network and balanced pattern in the region.

If Japan truly hopes to expand the space for international cooperation, the most important thing it should do is to earnestly abide by the basic norms governing international relations, completely abandon the Cold War mentality of zero-sum game, and participate in regional cooperation with an open, inclusive and constructive attitude. Only in this way can true win-win be achieved. Otherwise, no matter how grand the diplomatic summit is, it might just be a self-pitying one-man show.