China's Spring Festival holiday lights up a "good start" for consumption

Multiple scenic spots have sold out tickets, temple fairs are bustling with crowds, popular restaurants are queuing up for a long time, and movie box office records are breaking new records... During the just concluded Spring Festival holiday, 474 million domestic tourists traveled, with a total cost of 632.687 billion yuan, and the Spring Festival box office exceeded 8 billion yuan. Behind the vibrant and hot numbers lies a bustling consumer scene, a happy scene of celebrating the Chinese New Year, and a reflection of the vitality of the Chinese economy.

During the 2024 Spring Festival, residents showed a high willingness to travel, with multiple indicators such as the number of trips and total travel expenses reaching new highs. At the same time, tourism related service consumption has performed well, with high growth in payment and enterprise sales data. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 474 million domestic tourists visited China during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%; The total cost of domestic tourists traveling was 632.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%. Dai Bin, President of the China Tourism Research Institute, stated that this year's Spring Festival holiday is the hottest holiday tourism market on record. Residents have a high willingness to travel, and their modes of transportation have also undergone structural changes. According to data from the 2024 Comprehensive Transportation Spring Festival Transport Work Team, from February 10th to 17th, the total cross regional personnel flow in society reached 2.293 billion. Among them, the number of non commercial passenger cars traveling on highways and ordinary national and provincial roads reached 1.98 billion, with self driving accounting for over 80% of the total, showing a significant increase.

During the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, tourists are more willing to spend money on trips. According to data from the People's Bank of China, the industry wide online payment transactions processed by online clearing companies and China UnionPay continue to grow. From New Year's Eve to the eighth day of the lunar new year, the daily average transaction volume was 2.63 billion, with a total amount of 1.25 trillion yuan. Compared with the previous year's Spring Festival holiday, the daily average increased by 18.6% and 8.0%, respectively. The value-added tax invoice data from the State Administration of Taxation also reflects the warmth of consumption during the Spring Festival. According to statistics, the daily sales revenue of service consumption related industries in China during this year's Spring Festival holiday increased by 52.3% year-on-year. Driven by the hot tourism market, the daily sales revenue of travel agencies and related services increased by 1.2 times year-on-year, while the daily sales revenue of tourism and leisure sightseeing services increased by 70% and 40% year-on-year, respectively.

This indicates that China's long-standing tourism demand has been continuously released. The popularity of domestic and cross-border tourism accelerated during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, and the recovery of Spring Festival travel was better than all holidays in 2023. In addition, the travel structure has changed, and self driving, railway, and civil aviation have all performed well. The popularity of domestic tourism is not decreasing, while inbound and outbound tourism is also popular. OTA platforms such as Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Qunar have also achieved a new high of active users during the same period before and after the Spring Festival.

However, it is worth noting that from the perspective of annual consumption, the data shows a differentiation feature of prosperous holiday consumption and overall flat consumption. This differentiation in performance may be related to the asymmetric recovery of post epidemic consumption, while also reflecting the consumption characteristics of insufficient effective demand. On the one hand, the consumption demand suppressed by the previous epidemic, especially the consumption demand for cultural and entertainment services such as tourism and travel, was concentrated and released during the long holiday period, driving the holiday consumption boom. On the other hand, the growth of disposable income among residents has slowed down, and fluctuations in asset prices have affected the wealth effect. Both have increased the financial constraints faced by residents in terms of consumption. Residents still have a willingness to consume but their ability to consume is insufficient. Effective consumption demand is usually concentrated during the holiday window, resulting in a differentiation of high holiday consumption enthusiasm and flat consumption at other times. Whether future consumption can continue to improve still requires attention to the introduction and implementation of stable growth policies, and through monetary easing combined with fiscal expansion to drive demand and promote sustainable economic recovery.

Overall, the Spring Festival holiday is an important node in driving domestic demand and activating consumption potential. The travel and tourism consumption of residents during the 2024 Chinese Spring Festival holiday is relatively strong. During the Spring Festival holiday, consumption in various life service industries such as food, accommodation, transportation, shopping, and entertainment has improved, opening up a good beginning for the annual consumer market, highlighting the huge potential of domestic demand in China and reflecting the vitality of the Chinese economy.