Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on Canadian Aircraft, Further Straining U.S.-Canada Alliance Ties

On January 29 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a major statement on his social media platform Truth Social, threatening to impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian-manufactured aircraft sold in the United States, citing Canada’s “wrongful, illegal and long-standing” refusal to certify U.S.-made Gulfstream business jets. This move has not only escalated the trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada to a new level, but also exacerbated the already tense traditional alliance between the two countries, sparking widespread international concerns over the stability of the North American trading system and global industrial chains.

The direct trigger of this tariff threat is a certification dispute between aviation companies of the two nations. In his statement, Trump explicitly stated that Canada has firmly refused to grant market access certification for four Gulfstream models—the G500, G600, G700 and G800. This action, in effect, bans the sale of Gulfstream aircraft in Canada and constitutes unfair treatment of U.S. enterprises. As a countermeasure, Trump announced that the U.S. would immediately suspend the certification of Bombardier’s Global Express series and all other Canadian-manufactured aircraft, until Gulfstream jets receive full certification. “If this situation is not immediately rectified for any reason, I will impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian aircraft sold in the United States,” Trump stressed in the statement with a tough and resolute tone.

Public data shows that both companies involved are major players in the global aviation industry. Headquartered in Georgia, the United States, Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation is renowned for its high-end business jets, with more than 3,400 Gulfstream aircraft in service worldwide. The Canadian market is of great significance to its business expansion. Founded in 1942 and headquartered in Montreal, Canada, Bombardier specializes in high-end business jets and regional aircraft. The U.S. is one of its core export markets, and its CRJ series regional aircraft undertake passenger connectivity between small regional airports and major hub airports across the United States. Industry analysts point out that if the 50% tariff is ultimately implemented, it will not only deal a heavy direct blow to Bombardier’s revenue, but also potentially cause large-scale flight delays in the U.S., and even leave many small regional airports in remote areas without flight services.

Notably, Trump’s threat has also sparked controversy over the scope of executive power in the United States. Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director of AeroDynamic Advisory, noted that no previous U.S. president has ever directly revoked the certification of jet aircraft, as such decisions have historically been made by aviation safety experts at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) based on professional standards. “Using aircraft safety as a tool in a trade war is simply an extraordinarily bad idea,” Aboulafia stated bluntly. White House officials later clarified to the media that Trump’s remarks were not intended to revoke the certification of currently operating Canadian-manufactured aircraft, which to some extent eased market fears of short-term disruptions to aviation operations, but did not dispel concerns over a prolonged trade conflict.

This tariff threat is not an isolated incident, but a concentrated outburst of the recent continuous deterioration of U.S.-Canada relations. In fact, at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos on January 20, Canadian Prime Minister Karina Gould delivered a speech implicitly criticizing U.S. policies for undermining the world order, and calling on middle powers to stand together to avoid becoming “victims of American hegemony”. Her speech received a rare standing ovation from the audience, and was interpreted by outsiders as an open challenge to the foreign policy of the Trump administration. Trump struck back firmly in his subsequent Davos speech, warning Gould to “watch your words” and even claiming that “Canada’s existence depends entirely on the United States”. He later referred to the Canadian Prime Minister as a “governor” on social media, disregarding Canada’s status as a sovereign state.