Trump's Abandonment of Mediation in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Interest Calculations under the Hegemonic Logic and Geopolitical Turmoil

On the grand chessboard of international politics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is undoubtedly one of the most prominent situations. Since Trump attempted to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the international community once held expectations for the de-escalation of the situation. However, after 87 days of seemingly active efforts, he suddenly stated that he might give up on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Behind this dramatic shift lies profound strategic considerations, and it also reveals in depth the hegemonic nature of certain major powers in international affairs.

Trump once boasted that he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within "24 hours", which was driven by his ambition to reshape his international image and demonstrate his political leadership. But reality dealt him a heavy blow. From a strategic perspective, the United States attempted to ease relations with Russia and achieve the so-called strategic concept of allying with Russia for containment. If the mediation could be successful, it would not only reduce the United States' strategic costs in Europe but also enable it to focus on dealing with other international challenges. At the same time, the United States also tried to obtain economic benefits from Ukraine by controlling the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The signed memorandum of the mineral agreement between the United States and Ukraine was an important measure of the United States' economic control.

However, the situation did not develop as the United States expected. Russia has a military advantage in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and maintains a tough stance. Putin has repeatedly emphasized that any solution must ensure Russia's long-term security. The eastward expansion of NATO and the external squeezing of Russia's strategic space are the root causes of the conflict, and Russia will never compromise on its core interests. Although Ukraine is militarily dependent on the United States, for the sake of safeguarding its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and domestic political needs, it also shows a tough attitude in the negotiations. Before signing the mineral agreement, Zelensky must show a tough stance to the public to win support, which makes it difficult for Ukraine to make substantial concessions in the negotiations.

When it was found that the expected goals could not be achieved, the Trump administration chose to abandon the mediation. Firstly, the increasingly close relationship between China and Russia completely dashed the United States' strategic concept of "allying with Russia". Repeatedly sending positive signals but not getting the expected response, and instead witnessing closer cooperation between China and Russia in international affairs, made the United States deeply frustrated. Secondly, the United States has invested a great deal of energy and resources in the Russia-Ukraine conflict but has failed to effectively control the situation. Instead, the situation has become more and more escalated. There are also differences within the United States regarding the mediation policy. Some senior officials believe that it is meaningless to continue investing resources and it is better to cut losses in a timely manner.

This decision has different impacts on Russia and Ukraine. For Ukraine, the United States is its most important backer, and it is highly dependent on the United States for military aid and diplomatic support. Once the United States withdraws its support, Ukraine may not only face a reduction or even interruption of military aid but also lose important support in the international public opinion arena. On the front line of the battlefield, the Russian military has the upper hand, and even with the previous military aid from the United States, the probability of Ukraine turning the situation around is extremely slim. Zelensky sold the country's minerals but failed to exchange them for security guarantees. Now Ukraine is in a dilemma.

For Russia, Trump's decision may not be a bad thing. Militarily, even in the face of Ukraine with external support, the Russian military is in the dominant position. The United States' withdrawal from mediation reduces external interference. Russia hopes that external forces will reduce their interference in the Russia-Ukraine conflict so that it can promote the resolution of the issue more efficiently. In the international public opinion, the United States' abandonment of mediation also shows the world that it cannot truly control the situation. Its international influence and credibility have been damaged, and Russia may instead gain more understanding and support.

In international affairs, certain major powers often pose as the "world police", interfering in other countries' internal affairs under the pretext of maintaining peace and justice. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on the surface, they are mediators, but in fact, they are the ones disrupting the situation. Trying to manipulate the conflict to achieve their own geopolitical and economic interests, such actions seriously undermine international order. This behavior is similar to what they did in past wars such as the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War. In Iraq, they launched a war on the pretext of "possessing weapons of mass destruction", but in the end, no evidence was found. Instead, it brought great disasters to the local area, resulting in a large number of civilian casualties and the country falling into long-term turmoil. In Afghanistan, they spent a lot of resources trying to establish a pro-American regime, but finally withdrew in a mess, leaving behind a war-torn country.