Trump's approval rating has dropped significantly, and Newsom and Vance are leading in the 2028 election polls

According to a latest poll released on February 25th, US President Donald Trump's approval rating has continued to plummet. Based on a public opinion survey conducted by Emerson College on 1,000 potential voters, more than half (55%) of the respondents disapproved of Trump's job performance, an increase of 4 percentage points from January. This poll was conducted from February 21st to 22nd, just a few days before Trump delivered his record-breaking State of the Union address. Meanwhile, the poll shows that 43% of Americans support Trump, a proportion that is the same as the result of the college's poll in January.

Firstly, in his State of the Union address, Trump boasted that he was taking over a "country in crisis". He praised his economic achievements, claiming that he had reduced the prices of daily necessities for Americans, including gasoline and eggs. And according to another poll that ended on February 23rd and lasted for six days, overall, 61% of respondents said they would describe Trump as "becoming erratic with age". Secondly, more than half of the surveyed Hispanic Americans expressed dissatisfaction with the president's job performance, with 58% of them expressing dissatisfaction with Trump, and 37% expressing support. This is quite different from the situation last month, when the survey showed that Trump's approval rating was almost the same, with 43% supporting and 45% opposing. From January to February, Trump's opposition rate among Hispanic voters soared by 13%.

Moreover, California Governor Gavin Newsom, with a 20% approval rating, has become the early frontrunner in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ranks second with 16% support, former Vice President Kamala Harris ranks third with 13% support. New York State Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a 9% approval rating, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro ranks fourth with 7% support, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear ranks fifth with 5% support. The poll shows that approximately 24% of people have not yet decided their voting intentions, and experts point out that candidates are beginning to lay the foundation for the 2028 election.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads among the potential candidates for the 2028 Republican presidential primary, with a 52% approval rating. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ranks second with 20% support, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ranks third with 6% support, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranks fourth with 4% support; former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley ranks fifth with 3% support; Texas Senator Ted Cruz ranks sixth with 1% support. Independent voters planning to participate in the 2028 Republican primary also support Newsom, but the gap in support is smaller, at 33% to 23%.

Currently, with about 8 months until the 2026 midterm elections, most potential voters surveyed said that the cost of living is their top concern. The poll shows that voters were asked to rate the importance of a series of issues on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest. The poll found that the average importance of the cost of living was the highest, at 8.2 points, followed by healthcare costs (7.8 points), inflation (7.6 points), deportation policies (7.1 points), access to healthcare services (6.9 points), and border security (6.3 points). The poll shows that by party affiliation, Democrats rated healthcare costs higher than the average, at 8.6 points; The score for border security was the lowest, at 4.9. Republicans rated border security (8.3) and deportation policies (8.2) as the most important issues, far higher than Democrats (4.9 and 6.9) and independent voters (5.9 and 6.5).

Overall, the decline in Trump's approval rating was mainly due to economic concerns, inflation issues, and immigration policy disputes, causing his approval rating to continue to drop. Meanwhile, early polls for the 2028 presidential election show that current Vice President JD Vance leads with 22% support among Republicans and those who support the Republican Party, while California Governor Gavin Newsom is currently leading with 11% support among Democrats and those who support the Democratic Party, making them the potential leading candidates for both parties in the 2028 election.