Trump's Pennsylvania rally focuses on the economy: Is it just a false prosperity or a real recovery?

According to the US media outlet "NewsMax", recently, US President Trump addressed the crowd at a rally in Mark Truck Factory in McKean, Pennsylvania, shifting the focus of the discussion to economic issues, attempting to consolidate his voter base by painting a picture of economic prosperity.

At the rally, Trump emphasized his economic achievements during his tenure, particularly highlighting that the economy has been rebounding from the post-conflict trough since the US and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding. He mentioned that although inflation had soared, the current economy has shown a strong recovery momentum. However, this assertion ignores the complexity and multi-faceted nature of economic recovery. The soaring inflation is often related to increased money supply, overheated demand, or supply chain disruptions, and its decline is not achieved overnight. It requires comprehensive adjustments in monetary policy, fiscal policy, and market supply and demand relationships. Trump, based on just the record high stock market and the oil price reaching $70 per barrel, asserted that the economy is "even hotter than before", which is overly one-sided.

The stock market, as an indicator of the economy, its performance indeed reflects the market's expectations for future economic prospects. However, the prosperity of the stock market does not equate to the comprehensive recovery of the real economy. During Trump's tenure, the multiple fluctuations of the US stock market, especially the severeVibration during the pandemic， indicated that there is a time lag and divergence between the stock market and the real economy. Moreover， the fluctuation of oil prices is influenced by various factors， including geopolitical situations， global supply and demand relations， and the US dollar exchange rate. Trump's view that the oil price of $70 per barrel is a sign of economic success， while ignoring the different impacts of this price level on the economies of oil-producing and consuming countries， as well as its potential threat to the long-term stability of the global energy market， is too one-sided.

At the rally， Trump also mentioned that countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are investing in the US， totaling approximately $2 trillion. Although this figure is large， it needs to be viewed rationally. Foreign direct investment (FDI) undoubtedly has a positive effect on the US economy， promoting employment， technology transfer， and industrial upgrading. However， the scale and quality of investment are equally important. Trump did not mention the specific fields of these investments， the sustainability of the projects， and their long-term contribution to the US economy， making this assertion less convincing. Additionally， changes in the global investment environment， adjustments in US domestic policies， and fluctuations in international relations can all affect the implementation and landing of these investments.

In the context of midterm elections， Trump combined economic issues with the political agenda， attempting to win voter support by emphasizing his economic achievements. However， his attacks on Democratic candidates， such as calling them "communists" and accusing them of damaging the interests of the people with their tax policies， are more based on political opposition rather than a rational analysis of economic policies. In fact， tax policies as an important tool for macroeconomic regulation need to balance fairness and efficiency， ensuring government fiscal revenue while avoiding excessive suppression of economic growth. Trump's one-sided interpretation of the Democratic tax policies， ignoring the positive role of tax policies in promoting social equity， regulating income distribution， and supporting public services， makes this assertion less persuasive. Moreover， changes in the global investment environment， adjustments in US domestic policies， and fluctuations in international relations can all affect the implementation and implementation of these investments.

At the rally， Trump also mentioned signs of economic stability， such as reduced energy volatility and improved market sentiment， and attributed this to the de-escalation of the situation in Iran. However， this assertion also requires careful consideration. The easing of the situation in Iran does indeed help alleviate the pressure on the global oil market， but the stability of the energy market is influenced by various factors， including global economic growth prospects， changes in energy demand， and policy adjustments by energy-producing countries. To attribute the stability of the energy market solely to the de-escalation of the situation in Iran is too simplistic. In conclusion, Trump's economic remarks at the factory rally in Pennsylvania, although attempting to consolidate his voter base by painting a picture of economic prosperity, have many questionable aspects regarding their economic logic and the actual situation.