Why is Europe taking a tough stance on Iran?

Recently, a leader of Hamas' political faction was attacked and assassinated by Israel while attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president in Tehran. This incident may have a significant impact on the prospects of restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and European countries. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to take retaliatory action against what is seen as a serious provocation to Iran's sovereignty. The escalating tensions between Iran and its "resistance axis" countries, as well as Israel and its allies, may force European countries to stand on Israel's side and potentially shelve relevant discussions until the new Iranian government establishes diplomatic relations.

Despite differences between Iran and Europe on multiple issues, such as Iran's expanding nuclear program, stance on the situation in Ukraine, attitude towards the Israel Gaza conflict, and domestic repression, Iranian President Pezeshkian mentioned some areas of potential cooperation between the two sides in his inauguration speech. These areas include trade, energy security, transit routes, environmental protection, and combating terrorism and drug trafficking. However, on July 31st, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya was assassinated in a highly guarded hotel in Tehran, which could undermine these cooperation plans as the attack would regain influence for Iran's hardliners and potentially weaken the credibility of negotiations with the West.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Belbock expressed special concern about this and called on all parties to exercise restraint. Meanwhile, at the emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council held on July 31st, the UK and France attributed the escalation of tensions in the region mainly to Iran's support for Hamas.

In fact, attempts to restore diplomatic relations faced difficulties even before the assassination of Hania. The EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, congratulated Pezeshkian and expressed willingness to negotiate "in accordance with the EU's critical engagement policy". Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service and Chief Nuclear Negotiator of the European Union, also attended the inauguration ceremony of Pezeshkian and posted on social media platforms, saying, "I am pleased to restore contact with @ araghchi in a new chapter for Iran and look forward to working together again

However, Europe's stance on Iran is becoming increasingly tough. At the Manama Dialogue in 2022, the President of the European Commission, Ursula Vondrein, seemed to deny the traditional line of balanced contact between the EU and the countries in the Persian Gulf in his speech, and instead took a stronger position, viewing Iran as a major security threat in the region. On October 7, 2023, after Hamas launched a violent attack on Israel, von der Leyen further accused Iran of inciting violence and chaos in the Middle East.

Although the EU's foreign policy towards Iran may be weakening, concerns have been raised about the stance of European countries, especially the E3 (i.e. the UK, France, and Germany), which are driving European policy towards Iran. Among the E3 countries, relations with Germany are particularly tense. The German government, especially the Green Party, which controls foreign affairs, is influenced by the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement activists who believe that the large-scale protests against mandatory veils in 2022 foreshadow the rapid collapse of the Tehran regime. Iran's support for Russia and Hamas has further intensified Germany's hostile sentiment.

Overall, Western countries need to re-examine their diplomatic strategies. Traditional methods of relying on sanctions and pressure may have limited effectiveness when facing regional powers like Iran. A more flexible and constructive diplomatic approach may lead to better results.