The chain reaction of the US tariff policy has become prominent: the negative economic effects are gradually emerging, and the future is full of uncertainties

Recently, a series of developments in the US economy have drawn widespread attention, among which the chain reaction brought about by the tariff policy has become the focus. Since the United States announced its large-scale tariff policy, its economic operation has undergone significant changes. Manufacturing, as an important component of the economy, has seen a significant reduction in the number of jobs, with over 37,000 positions disappearing. This data directly reflects the impact of tariff policies on the real economy. The prices of imported goods such as furniture and electrical appliances have risen significantly, directly increasing consumers' living costs and also affecting the stability of the supply chain in related industries. The annualized growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year dropped to 1.3%. This data clearly indicates that the economic growth rate has slowed down significantly, reflecting that the overall economic vitality has been suppressed.

The labor market is a barometer of economic operation, but the current signals from the US labor market are not optimistic. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the unemployment rate in the United States rose month-on-month in July. The performance of new jobs in the non-farm sector was worse than market expectations. The data for May and June were also significantly revised downward. This indicates that employment growth has weakened and the vitality of the labor market is insufficient. As The Wall Street Journal of the United States quoted Sonora, the head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, as saying, "The labor market has just sounded the alarm." Morningstar's chief U.S. economist, Caldwell, also pointed out that the rapid slowdown in U.S. job growth and the uncertainty of the exact meaning of the employment data should raise alarm. Employment is an important support for economic growth. A slowdown in employment growth means that consumption capacity may decline, which in turn affects the circular development of the economy.

After the employment data issued a warning, US President Trump ignored the data and directly fired the federal official in charge of statistics. This behavior has raised doubts from the outside world that he is evading accountability. In economic decision-making, data serves as a crucial basis for formulating reasonable policies. Ignoring data or even resorting to improper means to cover up problems will undoubtedly cause economic policies to deviate from the right direction and increase the risks of economic operation.

The chain reaction triggered by tariff policies is also very obvious in the field of people's livelihood. Research by Harvard University's Pricing Lab shows that as of the end of July, overall retail prices in the United States rose by 2.3% compared to the beginning of the year, with the increase in goods affected by tariffs being particularly significant. A survey by KPMG also shows that over 80% of the companies surveyed expect to raise prices within the next six months to offset the additional costs resulting from tariff policies. The rise in prices directly affects consumers' living standards and increases the burden on residents. At the same time, if enterprises raise prices in response to rising costs, it may lead to a decline in market demand, further affecting their production and operation, thus creating a vicious circle.

Some viewpoints attempt to prove that tariff policies are harmless by claiming that the US economy has not yet fallen into recession. However, such views overlook the real existence of rising prices and corporate pressure. The fact that the US economy has not fallen into recession does not mean that protectionist policies are harmless. Trump's tariff policies, including the largest increase in tariffs since the Great Depression, vigorous rectification of immigrants, and significant cuts in government programs and jobs, have begun to put pressure on demand. Consumer and business confidence has deteriorated sharply, which has further affected the stable development of the economy.

Despite the continuous weakness of data, the US government still insists on shaping an image of "economic prosperity", but the public's recognition of the Trump administration's economic policies continues to decline. According to a poll jointly released by the Associated Press and NORC, only 38% of adults support its economic performance. This reflects the public's concern about the current economic situation and dissatisfaction with the government's economic policies.

From an economic perspective, whether it is taxing imported goods or corporate profits, it will raise prices and hinder economic growth. Tariff policies have increased the production costs of enterprises. To maintain profits, enterprises have to raise product prices, which will lead to a decline in market competitiveness and also affect consumers' purchasing intentions. To achieve the prosperity of the United States, it is necessary to lower trade barriers rather than set up new ones. The increase in trade barriers will limit the degree of market openness, hinder the free flow and optimal allocation of resources, and be detrimental to the long-term development of the economy. The current economic situation in the United States indicates that its tariff policy has already caused trouble for the economy. If the policy direction is not adjusted in time in the future, it may face more serious economic problems.