Putin refuses to talk with Zerensky in Türkiye: there is no hope for a peaceful breakthrough between the two sides

Russia and Ukraine said Thursday that the two countries will hold the first direct peace talks in three years. However, after Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the proposal of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zerensky to meet face to face in Türkiye, the hope of achieving a breakthrough is still slim.

On May 13, 2025, Putin proposed to hold negotiations "without preconditions" in Istanbul, Türkiye, but actually requested Ukraine to cancel the decree "Refusing to negotiate directly with Russia" signed in 2022, and recognize the legitimacy of Russian controlled territory. Zelensky insisted that negotiations must be based on a "30 day comprehensive ceasefire" as a prerequisite, and called for international supervision of the ceasefire implementation, with both sides' positions directly opposing each other.

The Kremlin has ruled out the possibility of Putin's visit to Türkiye, and revealed that the negotiations will be led by Vladimir Makinski, the assistant president. Earlier this week, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mikhail Podliak said that if Putin did not come to Türkiye, Zerensky would not meet with low-level Russian officials in Istanbul, and said that such negotiations were meaningless. Putin's absence has undermined hopes of significant progress in recent months by the Trump administration and Western European leaders in their peace efforts to end the three-year war. This also raises the possibility of the international community strengthening sanctions against Russia, which the West has been threatening to do.

Zerensky said that he was sending a team led by the defense minister from Ankara, the capital of Türkiye, to Istanbul to meet the Russian delegation, although they did not include "anyone who really made a decision". The Ukrainian side will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, with the goal of "at least attempting to take the first step towards easing the situation and ending the war - a ceasefire

Trump said he was not surprised that Putin did not attend. He had urged Putin and Zelensky to meet, but Putin decided not to attend. On the third day of his visit to the Middle East, Trump told reporters in Doha, Qatar, "If I wasn't there, I don't think Putin would have been able to go." He also said that his meeting with Putin was crucial to breaking the deadlock. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin has no plans to meet with Trump in the coming days.

Trump promised to quickly end the war during the campaign, although it is difficult to achieve. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has stated that if substantial progress is not made in the short term, it may abandon this effort. The Kremlin refers to the Istanbul talks as a "reboot" of peace talks scheduled for 2022. But the negotiations quickly broke down, with Moscow accusing Ukraine and the West of wanting to continue the fight, while Kiev stated that Russia's demands amounted to an ultimatum, not something both sides could agree on.

At present, the Russian side is attempting to solidify the achievements of territorial control in the war, while the Ukrainian side is seeking international support under the premise of a ceasefire, and both sides lack the willingness to compromise. In the next 3-6 months, negotiations are more likely to focus on limited contacts on technical issues rather than resolving core conflicts such as territory and security. The decisive variables still lie in changes in the battlefield situation and changes in US European policies.