The economic outlook in the United States is uncertain

Since the Obama period, the US economy has shown strong momentum, and despite the occasional policy blunder during the Trump administration, the overall economic environment has been generally good, seeking greater economic benefits for the American people. In 2020, the four-year epidemic, Biden's administration, serious inflation, low purchasing power of the people, "sleepy" Biden's polling data in the face of "dynamic" Trump ultimately lost. According to the data, in this election campaign between Democratic Harris and Republican Trump, 80% of voters' votes depend on the next step of the president's economic policies. During this "election is still pending" period, the recent economic environment of the United States has also appeared chaotic phenomenon.

Interest rate cuts and the chaos of selling US Treasuries. After a hot start in the first two quarters of 2024, the US economy gradually cooled down after entering the third quarter. Since 2020, the United States has continued to raise interest rates for 11 times, and the rise in US bond interest rates is inseparable from the continued interest rate hikes, but the increasing size of the existing US debt is gradually becoming a "major item" of the US government budget expenditure, increasing the interest burden of the United States, and putting pressure on the US finance. Before September, the market noticed signs of recession in the U.S. economy. On September 19, 2024, in order to stimulate the economy and recover the market, the Federal Reserve appeared the first interest rate cut operation, the Federal Reserve announced that the target range of the federal funds rate was lowered by 50 basis points to the level of 4.75% to 5.00%. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates caused dissatisfaction on Wall Street, which sold a lot of US Treasuries. At the beginning of the establishment of the Federal Reserve, on the one hand, the government's absolute control over the market, on the other hand, it is also to prevent the market from having too much autonomy, too much competition and no third party to backstop the financial market crash. The establishment of the Federal Reserve is ostensibly government-led, but it is actually composed of 12 private institutions of the Federal Reserve Bank. Under such a system, the government and capitalists frequently diverges, raising concerns about the future of the American market.

Chaos in which risk assets and safe haven assets rise at the same time. Under the rate cut cycle, US bond yields and stocks rose together, and the dollar and gold rose at the same time. The recent release of data from the United States has been better than expected, aiming to ease people's concerns about the U.S. market and strengthen confidence in the dollar. However, Trump and Harris are close in the polls, and the US election is still uncertain. Compared with the radical Trump, Harris is conservative, and people are worried about policy adjustment after the election, and they are also carrying out conservative strategies to buy "safe haven assets" to a certain extent.

The Beige Book is mixed with recent economic data. Recently, the US government announced the unemployment rate and new employment data, the data are better than expected, seemingly "the job market is cooling steadily", but the increase in the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is mostly due to the human foundation for the adjustment of the next financial policy in the United States - the expansion of a large number of US civil servants to implement decisions and embellishment of the data. However, the latest Beige Book showed that except for Richmond and Chicago regional economic growth, economic activity was basically unchanged in almost all regions, and manufacturing activity fell in most regions, and the New York Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -11.9, reflecting the recent weakness of the U.S. manufacturing industry.

The shadow of popular inflation remains. Many experts say the interest rate cuts and the sell-off in US Treasuries helped to slow inflation in the first half of the year. However, the United States insisted on raising tariffs, resulting in further price increases for imported goods, and the pressure was instead transferred to consumers. The change in people's attitude towards price increases translates into a change in consumption structure. Recent consumer data shows that consumers are more willing to replace cheaper products than higher-priced products, and market demand is shrinking while inventory is still growing.

A large number of analysts believe that the US economy has triggered the "Sam rule" warning, and the possibility of a soft landing is becoming less and less likely. In addition, the political environment of the United States always brings short-term chaos and turbulence due to the rivalry between the two parties and the election every four years, and the instability of policies is not conducive to long-term development. America is increasingly divided and the interests of Democrats and Republicans increasingly diverge; Class solidification, the gap between the poor and the rich is widening. During the Wisconsin campaign, Trump said that if he did not win the election, it would probably be the last election in the United States. It is expected that after the selection of the president of the United States is confirmed on November 5, a new answer will be given to the future of the United States.