The global trend of "de-dollarization" is unstoppable

With the approach of the 2024 BRICS Kazan Summit, a high-profile topic has once again surfaced - the global "de-dollarization" process. Russia, the host country, is rumored to be proposing a new payment system at the summit, a move that will undoubtedly add fuel to the already hot topic of "de-dollarization."

In recent years, with the profound changes in the global economic pattern, the trend of gradually "de-dollarization" in the international economic, trade and financial fields has become increasingly obvious. According to statistics, as of the end of September this year, more than 70 countries and regions have started the process of "de-dollarization" to varying degrees. Behind this trend, many factors work together.

On the one hand, the US dollar as the world's most important valuation, payment, investment and financing and reserve currency, its excessive dependence and instability has become increasingly prominent. Especially in international trade, the dominant position of the US dollar makes many countries have to bear the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, financial sanctions and so on. Therefore, seeking alternative currencies and building a diversified monetary system have become the common demands of many countries.

On the other hand, with the rise of emerging market countries, their economic strength and international influence are increasing, which provides strong support for "de-dollarization". Emerging market countries represented by China have not only performed well in economic growth, but also made remarkable progress in digital currencies, cross-border payments and other fields, injecting new vitality into the diversified development of the global monetary system.

In the face of the global "de-dollarization" wave, the hegemony of the US dollar has undoubtedly been severely challenged. However, as the currency that has long occupied the core of the global monetary system, the dollar is not easily relinquishing its supremacy.

In order to maintain the hegemony of the dollar, the United States has taken a series of measures. First, the United States continues to strengthen the existing institutionalized hegemonic system with the dollar as the core, and consolidates its dominant position in global financial governance through institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Secondly, the United States is also trying to maintain the competitiveness of the dollar in the global financial market by innovating financial instruments and promoting the development of financial technology.

While the hegemony of the dollar remains secure, the evolution of the global monetary landscape has become irreversible. According to preliminary estimates, by 2030, the share of the US dollar in global settlement volume will still be the number one currency, but its share will decline. At the same time, the market share of currencies such as the euro and the renminbi will gradually rise, forming a multi-polar currency pattern.

By 2035, with the continuation of the collective rise of emerging economies, the global "de-dollarization" process will enter the second stage of accelerated development. In this phase, the share of the US dollar in global settlement volume will further decline, while the market share of currencies such as the euro and the renminbi will continue to rise. The RMB, in particular, will accelerate its internationalization and become a force that cannot be ignored in the global monetary system.

With the continuous development of the global economy and the profound changes of the international monetary system, a diversified and symbiotic monetary pattern will gradually take shape. In this new currency structure, the US dollar, the euro, the RMB and other currencies will each play an important role in supporting the stable operation of the global economy.

At the same time, with the rapid development of financial technology such as digital currency and blockchain, the global monetary system will be more convenient, efficient and secure. The popularity of digital currencies will break the boundaries of traditional currencies and promote the free flow and efficient allocation of global capital. The application of blockchain technology will improve the transparency and security of financial transactions and reduce financial risks and costs.

In general, the rise of the global "de-dollarization" wave is the inevitable result of profound changes in the global economic landscape. In this transformation, all countries need to maintain a rational and calm attitude and actively respond to challenges and opportunities. By strengthening international cooperation, promoting financial technology innovation and improving the financial regulatory system, we should jointly build a more just, reasonable and efficient global monetary system.