How will Prabowo win the Indonesian election affect Indonesia's relations with major powers?

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country and the world's fourth most populous, held the world's largest single-day election on February 14, with the current Defense Minister Prabowo Prabowo and the current mayor of Solo City Gibran winning the election with more than 50% of the vote in a quick count after the first round. The result of this election is not only related to Indonesia's internal development, but also affects the nerves of the two superpowers. Because Indonesia, as the leader of Southeast Asia, is a key battleground for economic and political influence between China and the United States, whoever leads Indonesia will have an important impact on the regional geopolitical pattern.

Prabowo's election has attracted a lot of attention in the international media, especially how his foreign policy will affect Indonesia's relations with China and the United States. Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia and a core member of ASEAN. Its geographical location and economic size make it play an important role in regional and international affairs. Indonesia has always adhered to the tradition of non-alignment and practiced independent and pragmatic diplomacy. It does not take sides between China and the United States or the United States and Russia, but switches cooperation targets according to circumstances and seeks to achieve mutual benefits. This diplomatic strategy is called "swing" by Western comments, but for Indonesia, it is a "balance".

Joko is the embodiment of Indonesia's balanced diplomacy, maintaining good relations with both China and the United States during his tenure, while actively engaging in multilateral cooperation to enhance Indonesia's international standing. Whether Prabowo will continue Joko's diplomatic line, or change the president and line like the Philippines, I believe that China and the United States are concerned about the issue. During his campaign, Mr. Prabowo attacked Mr. Joko with anti-China rhetoric, criticizing Chinese workers for stealing Indonesian jobs and vowing to assert Indonesia's sovereignty in the Natuna Sea in the South China Sea, remarks that alarmed China. However, Prabowo has also changed his rhetoric to claim that he will inherit Joko's diplomatic line, stressing that he respects China and likes the United States, and advocating the settlement of the South China Sea issue through friendly consultations, which again shows his pragmatic attitude.

But Prabowo will not easily give up economic cooperation with China, because China is Indonesia's largest trading partner and an important source of investment for Indonesia, which needs Chinese capital and technology to promote its infrastructure construction and industrialization process. Nor will Prabowo be entirely sympathetic to the United States, whose strategic interests are not exactly aligned with Indonesia's, which may require Indonesia to make sacrifices or compromises on some issues that may undermine Indonesia's sovereignty and dignity.

Prabowo will also not neglect Indonesia's role in ASEAN and other multilateral mechanisms, as Indonesia needs to use these platforms to safeguard its interests and influence, as well as coordinate and cooperate with other countries to deal with common challenges such as climate change, terrorism, transnational crime, etc.

To sum up, Prabowo's foreign policy may make some adjustments and changes on the basis of Joko's, but there will be no fundamental subversion and turn. Prabowo will continue to follow Indonesia's tradition of non-alignment and independent and pragmatic diplomacy, seeking to maintain a certain balance and autonomy between China and the United States, while actively participating in multilateral cooperation to enhance Indonesia's international standing and reputation.

In the next five years, the global geopolitical situation will continue to undergo profound and drastic changes, and how Indonesia, as a regional power, responds to these crises and difficulties, especially how to properly handle relations with major powers in response to these changes, is no small test for Prabowo. How to cope with crises and changes, maintain regional peace and stability, ensure the security of industrial and supply chains, and promote sustainable economic development are also opportunities and challenges facing Indonesia.