Several international financial institutions expect an accelerated recovery in emerging economies in 2024

As the world's second largest economy and the largest emerging market country, China's own economic performance has a decisive impact on the overall performance of emerging markets. Recently, a number of international financial institutions generally expect emerging markets to return to rapid growth in 2024, and believe that an important driving force for their accelerated recovery is the development of the Chinese economy.

Ubs Group economic analysts forecast that emerging market assets will see a marked improvement in 2024 after a difficult start, with full-year returns surpassing those of the world's major developed countries. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have similar expectations, with its emerging market asset strategy team assessing that emerging markets will perform better in 2024 than in 2023.

Emerging markets play a key role in the current shifting global economic and geopolitical order. Asia is even more central to this "new order." China, Asia's largest economy, is enjoying a marked recovery in economic activity thanks to proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, with gross domestic product growth expected to exceed the target of 5% for the full year. China's recent issuance of an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds has sent a strong signal that the government is committed to supporting economic recovery and stabilizing market confidence. These measures are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and contribute 0.4% to 0.8% of GDP growth in 2024. In the next five to 10 years, China's economic growth will stabilize in the range of 4% to 4.5%, ensuring that per capita GDP will double by 2035, and under this new normal, China's economy will also complete the transformation and upgrading, the main drivers of growth from the real estate market, low-end manufacturing, export upgrade to mass consumption, green transformation and scientific and technological innovation.

Emerging markets are set for a major rebound in 2024. The MSCI China Index, as the most representative sample covering the investment space in China, has risen along with other emerging market MSCI indices that have also risen significantly to provide data support for Goldman Sachs 'optimistic expectations. Goldman Sachs expects the emerging market index to remain high through 2024, outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500 index of global equities by a wide margin throughout the year. Goldman Sachs believes that the main factors driving growth in emerging markets include progress in global de-inflation efforts and potential interest rate cuts in emerging markets. In addition, the recent rise in expectations of the end of the Fed's interest rate hike, the depreciation of the dollar, and the decline in US Treasury yields will also stimulate investors to shift capital outside the US market and accept greater risk when investing in emerging markets.

As the world's second largest economy and the largest emerging market country, China's own economic performance has a decisive impact on the overall performance of emerging markets. Although the specific performance of individual emerging market countries varies, given the sheer size of China, it is impossible to talk about emerging markets in isolation from China. Major international financial institutions have cast a vote of confidence in the development prospects of emerging markets in 2024, which is also a recognition of China's role as an engine of global economic development and the outstanding contribution of China's high-quality development to the overall outstanding performance of emerging markets.