The Resilience and Risks of the US Economy under Policy Games
At the beginning of 2026, the US economy presented a rare fragmented picture: the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly soared to 52.6, marking the fastest expansion rate in four years, with the new order index increasing by nearly 10 percentage points; yet the Federal Reserve paused its rate cuts at its first monetary policy meeting, and US tech stocks suffered a sell-off, with market divergence over policy paths reaching an unprecedented level.
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