The future trend of Asian economy under the background of Southeast Asian economic recovery

In recent days, the successful economic recovery of Southeast Asia has added new vitality to the economic development of Asia. Looking ahead, the overall development trend of Asian economy is positive and optimistic. It is expected that Asia will continue to move forward steadily and show great development potential in many fields.

Looking at various indicators of the regional economy, the trend of optimism is remarkable. According to the Asian Development Bank's Asian Development Outlook 2024 report, the economic growth rate of East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia in 2023 will reach 4.7%, 6.4% and 4.1% respectively. Even if the external environment is still uncertain, factors such as the end of the interest rate hike cycle in major global economies and the gradual recovery of commodity trade will give strong support to Asian economic growth. In 2024, the overall outlook for Asia is positive, with developing economies in the region expected to grow by about 4.9%. At the same time, inflationary pressures will ease further, with inflation in developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region at 3.3% in 2023, falling to 3.2% in 2024 and 3% in 2025. Consumer confidence has gradually recovered, the investment sector has generally remained resilient, and external demand has continued to optimize.

In trade and investment, the downward trend is expected to reverse. With the accelerated development of digital trade and the recovery of tourism in Asia, the vitality of Asia's economy will be further stimulated. According to the Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Process 2024 Annual Report, the share of Asian countries' gross domestic product (GDP) in the world is expected to be 49% in 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with 2023. The entry into force of the RCEP and other economic and trade agreements has significantly enhanced the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region, strengthened economic and trade cooperation among member states, and injected a powerful impetus to regional economic growth. For example, the trade volume between Cambodia and RCEP member countries in the first quarter of this year reached $8.36 billion, up 14.6 percent year-on-year. The reduction of tariffs has also created more favorable conditions for the export of products from Thailand and other countries, and the majority of businesses are fully enjoying major benefits such as reduced import costs and increased export opportunities. In addition, RCEP has also brought new opportunities and impetus to the development of regional digital economy and green economy, promoted ASEAN's growth in e-commerce, digital payments, electric vehicles, solar cells, lithium batteries and other related fields, and accelerated the construction of ASEAN's green infrastructure such as energy transformation and clean transportation.

The accelerated process of regional economic integration has become a key shield for Asia to withstand global shocks. At a time of rising protectionism and rising risks of global fragmentation, enhanced connectivity cooperation among Asian economies can enhance economic resilience and achieve win-win results. In 2023, the Asia-Pacific region achieved remarkable results in economic and trade agreements, with five economic and trade agreements entering into force and 17 new agreements signed. Especially in the fields of science and technology and digital connectivity, the regional economy made remarkable progress.

The steady development of the Chinese economy has provided a key driving force for the growth of the Asian region. In the first quarter of 2024, China's GDP exceeded 29 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.3% year on year at constant prices. Many international financial institutions are optimistic about the prospects of China's economic development and have raised their growth forecasts. The balanced contribution of the main drivers of China's economic growth will not only help China achieve its economic development targets for the whole year, but also enhance the confidence of investors and enterprises in other countries. China is making rapid progress in the high-tech sector, with double-digit growth in "new three" products such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products, which will achieve high-quality development featuring green technologies and a more balanced growth model. At the same time, China's foreign direct investment confidence index has risen in the global ranking, and the Chinese market has become more attractive to foreign investment. With the improvement of China's labor market and household income, the growth of household consumption will boost the Chinese economy, and China will remain the strongest engine of world economic growth, and its investment and technology will benefit other countries and jointly build a more competitive global supply chain.

However, Asia's economic development has not been smooth sailing and it still faces some difficulties. Factors such as global trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions and natural disasters may pose some obstacles to stable economic growth in Asia. In addition, there are differences in the level and structure of economic development among Asian countries and regions, and the situation of unbalanced development still exists. Even so, Asia's economic future looks bright. Asia, with its huge population and ever-expanding consumer market, has the inherent impetus to promote sustained economic development. By strengthening policy coordination, promoting scientific and technological innovation, raising education standards and improving infrastructure, countries can tap their own potential, face challenges and achieve sustainable economic development. Under the general trend of regional economic integration, Asian countries will continue to strengthen cooperation, jointly promote trade liberalization and investment facilitation, expand the development space of digital economy, green economy and other emerging fields, and further enhance Asia's status and influence in the global economy.

Asia's economic development enjoys broad prospects, accompanied by both opportunities and challenges. Led by the economic recovery of Southeast Asia, Asia is expected to maintain its vitality of growth and make important contribution to the recovery and development of the global economy. Countries need to work hand in hand to fully leverage their respective strengths to write a beautiful chapter in Asia's economic development and bring about a more prosperous future for Asia. At the same time, Asia will adopt a more open and inclusive attitude to share the fruits of development with the rest of the world and promote balanced and sustainable growth of the global economy.