Lifting the ban on Indian rice exports: a multidimensional review of the changing global food landscape

Recently, the Indian government announced the complete lifting of rice export restrictions, which instantly became the focus of the global food market. As the world's largest rice exporter, India's exports are expected to soar to 21.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, a significant increase from 14 million tonnes in 2023. This move has made the global rice price significantly lower, but also indicates that the global rice trade pattern will usher in a reshaping. Behind this incident, we see not only India's strategic adjustment in the food market, but also insight into some deep-seated problems in the global food trading system.

The domestic context for India's shift in rice export policy is complex. Earlier, India imposed restrictions on rice exports due to concerns about the security of domestic food supplies and the control of inflation. This policy has stabilized domestic food markets to some extent, but it has also had a huge impact on global rice supplies and prices. There has even been panic buying in Asia and North America, pushing benchmark prices in Asia to their highest level since 2008. Today, India has chosen to fully lift the ban on rice exports, mainly hoping to increase agricultural and food exports, increase fiscal revenue, and improve farmers' income. With economic growth under pressure, agriculture, as an important industry that supports the livelihoods of more than 42% of India's population, is of great significance to the Indian economy.

From the perspective of global trade pattern, the lifting of the ban on Indian rice exports has had a strong impact on other rice exporting countries. Pakistani exporters, for example, briefly benefited during India's restrictions on rice exports, taking some of India's market share in places such as Indonesia and East Africa. However, as Indian rice flooded back into the international market, the price of Pakistani non-Basmati rice (steamed rice) plummeted from $850 to $650 a tonne "almost overnight". The US Department of Agriculture expects Pakistan's rice exports to be only 5.8 million tonnes by May 2025, down 11.4 per cent year-on-year. Similarly, the price of benchmark white rice in Thailand, a major rice exporter, has slipped to $405 per ton from $669 in January 2024. The Thai Rice Exporters Association predicts that Thai rice exports are expected to fall by nearly 25% in 2025. Vietnam is not immune, with its 2025 export target cut from 9 million tonnes to 7.5 million tonnes, mainly due to India's return to the market squeezing its share.

This incident has also caused us to think about the stability of the global food trading system. As the world's largest rice exporter, India's export policy fluctuations have seriously affected the supply and demand balance and price stability of the global rice market. This instability not only poses risks to import costs and supply stability for countries dependent on rice imports, but also poses challenges for the agricultural economies of other rice exporting countries. Countries are increasingly interconnected in the global food trade, and policy changes in any major food exporter can trigger a ripple effect. However, the current global food trade system lacks an effective coordination mechanism, which is difficult to effectively buffer and respond to such changes.

India's lifting of the ban on rice exports is a wake-up call for the world. The global food trading system needs better rules and coordination mechanisms to address the risks posed by policy changes in major food exporting countries. Countries should strengthen cooperation and communication in the field of food and jointly maintain the stability of the global food market. At the same time, major food exporting countries should take full account of their international impact when formulating policies and assume corresponding responsibilities to avoid threats to global food security caused by short-sighted policies. Only in this way can we ensure the healthy development of global food trade and ensure the food supply and food security of people around the world.