China's exports hit a record high in 2024 before Trump returns to the White House

Ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House, Chinese companies are ramping up exports, which hit a record high in 2024.

China's General Administration of Customs released import and export data for 2024 on Monday. In 2024, China's export scale exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 25.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1%, including December exports in dollar terms, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, more than the Reuters survey forecast of 7.3%, but also a significant increase from November's 6.7% growth.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of China Oriental Jincheng rating agency, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that in December last year, China's export growth rate surged, and the increase exceeded market expectations, the main reason is that the export effect was further fermented before the new US government came to power.

He said that in 2025, the external environment variables increased significantly, prompting some Chinese enterprises to export ahead of schedule. From the data point of view, in December, China's export growth to the United States as high as 15.6%, significantly faster than the previous month 7.6 percentage points.

According to the website of China's General Administration of Customs, China's exports to the United States in December 2024 amounted to 48.83 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.59 billion U.S. dollars from 42.24 billion U.S. dollars in the previous year.

Wang Qing also pointed out that in December last year, China's exports to ASEAN (China called ASEAN) grew strongly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.9%, the growth rate was 4 percentage points faster than the previous month, which is also a concentrated reflection of the export effect. He said that a considerable part of China's exports to ASEAN are ultimately destined for the United States.

However, the strong growth in trade between China and ASEAN is not directly related to an export grab, according to Dong Ming Tse, head of research and strategy for Asia at OCBC Bank in Singapore. In an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, he said that some Chinese enterprises are worried about the instability of Sino-US geopolitical policy, and many enterprises have come to Southeast Asia successively to invest or transfer the industrial chain, "This is actually a process that has lasted for several years, and these processes will, to some extent, improve the close trade links between China and ASEAN."

Import data released by China's General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that China's imports in 2024 reached 18.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percent, of which December imports rose 1 percent year-on-year, compared with a 3.9 percent decline in the previous month is also a significant improvement.

Wang Qing said that China's import growth in December last year from negative to positive, in fact, is also related to the strength of exports. He analyzed that China's trade has the characteristics of large import and export, processing trade accounts for a relatively high proportion, and export growth is fast, including the acceleration of exports in the early stage will naturally stimulate import growth. In addition, China introduced a package of incremental policies last year to stabilize growth, including investment in infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing, which also drove a certain amount of import demand.

For China's import and export situation in 2025, Wang Qing believes that China's export situation this year faces the risk of brandishing tariffs on China again after Trump came to power, and the growth rate will definitely decline, but the decline will also depend on the intensity and rhythm of tax increases. He said that as long as global trade is in positive growth, China, as the number one country in global goods trade, will still have positive growth of 0% to 1%.

Xie Dongming said that in 2025, China's import and export situation will be affected by a possible slowdown in external demand. However, in the short term, it is not ruled out to grab exports to further support the performance of exports.

"In January this year, the export rush will definitely continue and will be very strong, and after two and three months, it depends on how the policy goes," he said.