Projection on the Potential Impact of the "Trump 2.0" Policy on the Business Field

In 2024, the political stage in the United States has witnessed constant changes, and the emergence of the "Trump 2.0" policy concept has drawn widespread attention from all sectors. Especially in the business field, its potential impact is like a huge rock dropped into a lake, which will stir up ripples layer by layer, and it is worth our in-depth projection.

Under the expectation of the "Trump 2.0" policy, trade is likely to return to a tough stance. Looking back on Trump's first tenure in office, he vigorously promoted trade protectionism and imposed additional tariffs on many countries in an attempt to rebuild the dominant position of the U.S. manufacturing industry. If the "Trump 2.0" policy continues this line of thinking, the international trade situation will inevitably become tense again.

The United States may further expand the scope of the review of imported goods and raise tariff barriers. Manufacturing enterprises in countries and regions that rely heavily on the U.S. market for exports will face a huge impact. For example, some export-oriented factories in China have already experienced difficulties such as reduced orders and rising costs during previous trade frictions. New rounds of trade protection measures may force some enterprises to seek new markets or increase their efforts to set up factories overseas to avoid tariffs. For domestic enterprises in the United States, in the short term, some traditional manufacturing industries may have the opportunity to regain a certain market share due to the rising prices of imported products. Domestic orders in industries such as steel and auto parts are expected to increase. However, in the long run, the lack of full competition in the international market will easily lead to insufficient innovation motivation, slow improvement in product quality, and may also face problems such as limited supply of raw materials and persistently high costs, because the global industrial chain is interdependent and trade barriers will disrupt the original efficient supply system.

At the same time, the "America First" trade strategy that the United States is trying to promote will prompt it to be more active in seeking the renegotiation of bilateral trade agreements. Its allies with close economic and trade exchanges with the United States, such as EU countries and Japan, on the one hand, will have to respond to the requirements of terms that are more favorable to the U.S. side put forward by the United States, and on the other hand, they will re-evaluate the benefits and risks of their trade cooperation with the United States. It is not impossible that they will adjust their trade directions and strengthen cooperation with other emerging economies. This will change the flow pattern of global trade. The trade routes that were originally concentrated in the United States may become decentralized, and emerging trade nodes are expected to emerge, bringing new opportunities to well-prepared business entities.

Trump has always advocated large-scale tax reduction policies, and the "Trump 2.0" policy may continue this concept. Measures such as reducing corporate income tax are undoubtedly good news for domestic enterprises in the United States. More funds can be retained within enterprises and used for aspects such as expanding production, technological research and development, and recruiting employees. Technology enterprises may increase their investment in research and development in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine, hoping to occupy a more advantageous position in global competition. Traditional manufacturing industries can use the saved funds to update equipment and improve production efficiency.

However, tax reduction policies also have hidden dangers. Government fiscal revenue may be affected as a result, which will in turn affect the provision of public services and the investment in infrastructure construction. This will bring indirect obstacles to some commercial activities that rely on good infrastructure and public resources, such as logistics and transportation and tourism. Moreover, in order to balance fiscal revenue and expenditure, the government may increase fees in other aspects or adopt some hidden fiscal means, which will increase the comprehensive operating costs of enterprises. Some enterprises that originally benefited from tax cuts may fall into new cost dilemmas.

Trump used to support the traditional energy industry and relaxed environmental regulations to promote the development of industries such as oil and coal. If the "Trump 2.0" policy continues to adhere to this approach, the energy field will present a unique business landscape. Traditional energy enterprises in the United States will usher in a new expansion cycle, and the production of oil and natural gas is expected to increase further. Enterprises in related industrial chains, from the manufacturing of exploration equipment to transportation and refining, will all benefit from it. However, this will run counter to the increasingly enhanced global environmental awareness and bring certain pressure on the business of the United States in terms of its international image. American multinational enterprises that focus on environmental protection images and mainly produce green products may encounter more doubts when expanding in the international market. Markets with strict environmental protection requirements, such as those in Europe, may set access barriers for some American products that do not meet their environmental protection standards.

Meanwhile, the development of the new energy industry may be inhibited. The reduction in government subsidies for new energy and the weakening of policy support will make new energy enterprises such as wind power and solar energy face difficulties such as tight funds and slow market expansion. However, from another perspective, it will also stimulate new energy enterprises to explore more market-oriented and competitive business models, break free from excessive dependence on policies, and achieve their own transformation and breakthroughs.

Trump once tightened immigration policies, and the "Trump 2.0" policy will most likely continue the tone of restricting immigration. For the U.S. labor market, on the one hand, it can guarantee employment opportunities for the local labor force to a certain extent. Some labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture and construction, which originally relied on a large number of cheap foreign laborers, will have to raise wage levels to attract local workers, which will increase the labor costs of enterprises. On the other hand, strict immigration policies will lead to limited inflow of high-end talents. Industries in the United States that require innovative thinking and talents with an international perspective, such as the technology and finance industries, may face a shortage of talents, affecting the innovation ability and international competitiveness of enterprises, and the progress of some commercial projects may be slowed down.

The business environment under the "Trump 2.0" policy is full of uncertainties and complexities. It may bring some local opportunities, but it also comes with many risks and challenges. Enterprises need to closely follow the policy trends and flexibly adjust their strategies in order to survive and develop in this changing situation.