On April 19, the news of Israel's attack on Iran made global assets "nervous", and the continued tension in the Middle East made US stock futures plunge, Nasdaq 100 index futures fell more than 2%, S&P 500 index futures fell 1.5%, and Dow futures fell more than 1%. At the same time, the crude oil market has not been spared, oil prices have shown signs of soaring today, Brent crude oil above $90 / barrel, up 3.7%, WTI crude oil once rose 4%. In the future situation is not clear, the future trend of the international crude oil market will become more confusing.
The impact of an Israeli strike on Iran on the international crude oil market is a complex issue. First of all, if Israel carries out a prolonged military strike against Iran, it will inevitably lead to further tension in the Middle East region, and it cannot be ruled out that it will lead to a larger conflict. Such geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased volatility in crude oil markets, with global investors likely to worry about supply disruptions, pushing prices higher. From past experience, the exact extent of the impact depends on the scale and duration of the conflict and the response of the parties. Historical data also confirm that geopolitical events have a significant impact on international oil prices. In previous Middle East conflicts, for example, oil prices surged for short periods, reflecting strong fears of supply disruptions. Therefore, the potential consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran could well lead to a similar move in oil prices. Secondly, Iran is one of the world's important oil producers, and its oil exports undoubtedly have a significant impact on the international crude oil market. It can be said that Iran's oil production and exports occupy an important position in the global energy market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran's daily oil production and exports are among the highest in the world. If Iran's oil production or exports are severely affected as a result of an Israeli strike, global oil supplies could be reduced, pushing up prices. Of course, it also depends on whether other oil producers can fill the gap in Iranian supply. At the same time, the market reaction is also one of the important factors affecting the oil price. Investors and traders assess developments based on news and data analysis and make investment decisions accordingly. If there is a widespread perception that the conflict could escalate, then oil prices could rise further. On the other hand, if the market believes that the situation can be contained, then oil prices may be relatively stable. It is important to note that the crude oil market is affected by a number of factors, including supply and demand, monetary policy, global economic conditions, and more. Therefore, the impact of Israel's attack on Iran on the international crude oil market is only one aspect, and other factors need to be taken into account to make a comprehensive judgment. In the context of this round of Israeli attacks on Iran, other factors such as the exchange rate of the US dollar, the global economic situation, and the development of alternative energy sources may also have an impact on oil prices. For example, if the global economy shows signs of recession, even if the risk of supply disruptions rises, oil prices may struggle to rise sustainably because of falling demand. Judging from the reaction of the current parties, although Israel is currently making enemies everywhere and the situation is relatively passive, in order to take the initiative in the chaotic situation, it is not ruled out that Israel plans to attack Iran for a long time. In the future, if the conflict lasts for a long time, it will be bad news for the international oil market.
