How far is peace in the Middle East from a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel?

On the 24th local time, Reuters reported, citing three sources, that Israel and Hamas are "close to reaching" a 30 day ceasefire agreement, which will allow more humanitarian supplies such as food and medical supplies to be provided to the Gaza Strip. Israeli and Palestinian detainees will also be released. But sources also claim that there are still differences between the two sides on how to permanently end the Gaza War.

Anyway, in today's world where this war has been in a stalemate, causing huge casualties and unprecedented humanitarian disasters, it is truly commendable to have such news spread.

In fact, intensive diplomacy around the ceasefire has been ongoing, especially Qatar, the United States, and Egypt who have been trying to mediate a ceasefire agreement between the conflicting parties in recent weeks. According to Qatar's statement on the 23rd, "I have put forward ideas to both sides of the conflict and have continuously received responses from both sides, which is itself an optimistic reason."

According to Egyptian officials on the 23rd, Hamas has told international mediators that they are willing to discuss an agreement to release some of the detained Israeli personnel in exchange for a "significant suspension" of the war. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that this stance marks a significant shift for Hamas. For several weeks, Hamas has insisted that it will only negotiate the "hostage issue" as part of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, and now there are clear signs of loosening on the Hamas side.

The main reason for the change in attitude of Israel, which has always been extremely tough, is due to its military setbacks and the military's "tug of war" performance on the battlefield.

On January 22nd, 21 Israeli soldiers unfortunately died collectively while carrying out combat missions in Gaza, setting a record for the highest single day death since the Gaza War. This news shocked the Israeli leadership, and the morale of the defense forces plummeted to the bottom. On the same day, the Israeli army also experienced an incident of mistakenly bombing their own tanks. On the same day that 21 people were killed in action in a single day, such a serious self injury incident occurred in the Israeli army, which shows that the morale of the Israeli army has been weakened and they can no longer withstand more blows.

The collective death of 21 people directly caused the Israeli military to break the record for the highest number of deaths since the start of the new round of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, which can be said to be a very heavy blow to the Israeli military. Israeli President Herzog declared that this is "a difficult and unbearable day that Israel has experienced in an unjust war.".

It is reported that the number of Israeli casualties in the Gaza Strip has been increasing, with over 500 deaths and nearly 3000 injuries. In this situation, the Israeli government is forced to actively seek peace and propose a two-month ceasefire to Hamas through a third party. This fully demonstrates that Israel can no longer bear the painful losses of war and urgently needs a ceasefire to rest and recuperate.

The economic situation is equally severe. As of now, although the impact of violent conflicts in the Middle East on global economic growth has been somewhat controlled, the situation in countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan is not optimistic. This war not only caused great economic losses to Israel and Palestine, but also had a serious impact on the economies of neighboring countries.

According to an assessment from the United Nations Development Programme, in just three months, the Israeli Palestinian conflict has caused at least $10 billion in losses to countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan, accounting for 2.3% of their gross domestic product. This has caused their economic development to regress by at least two to three years, and the upcoming refugee flows, soaring public debt, and other issues will add 230000 new impoverished people to these countries.

In terms of politics, Israel's rejection of the "two-state solution" has provoked public anger, and Israel has faced condemnation from multiple countries at the United Nations. UN Secretary General Guterres accused Israel of refusing the "two-state solution" at a UN Security Council meeting on the 22nd, which would prolong the Israeli Palestinian conflict, endanger global peace, and fuel extremism.

In addition, the spillover effects of the Israeli Palestinian conflict have already affected the interests of the United States in the Middle East, and the US government's attitude towards Israel has become increasingly firm. Therefore, whether from a military, political, or economic perspective, Israel is already in a state of mutual betrayal. If we cannot turn the tide, the situation will inevitably become even more irreversible. Let's see if the ceasefire, mediated by both sides and the efforts of relevant neighboring countries, can be achieved this time.