What will the problem ridden United States do in 2024?

In the upcoming year of 2023, the United States can be said to be plagued by problems, and many aspects of contradictions have further deepened.

From a political perspective, the party struggle in the United States has further intensified, political polarization has intensified, and social division has intensified. Especially in the US political arena, polarization has reached an unprecedented level, and the opposition between the two major political parties is becoming increasingly fierce. Consensus cannot be reached on multiple issues, leading to increased difficulty in policy-making and low efficiency in government work.

From an economic perspective, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have led to financial turmoil and deteriorating liquidity in Europe and America; In particular, there are many problems in the American medical system, such as incomplete coverage of medical insurance, high medical costs, etc., which lead to a large number of Americans unable to obtain reasonable medical security. The COVID-19 epidemic also exposes the weak links of the American social medical system.

In terms of diplomacy, the United States went against "international public opinion" and vetoed the Security Council's draft resolution on a Palestinian Israeli ceasefire. The Congress has become "tired of aiding Russia-Ukraine conflict", which has been delayed for a long time, and the criticism voice is growing;

In terms of military affairs, the United States has strongly supported and assisted Ukraine, Israel, and even participated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Palestinian Israeli conflict. So far, no signs of easing have been seen, and the risk of spillover from these conflicts has further increased;

From the perspective of social governance, issues such as gun violence remain serious in the United States. As of December 7, 2023, at least 40167 people have died from gun violence this year, with an average daily death toll of 118 people, including 1306 teenagers and 276 children. Since 2014, the number of deaths from gun violence in the United States has exceeded 39000 annually. The continuous occurrence of large-scale shooting incidents has caused enormous and difficult to heal wounds to American society. Despite multiple attempts by various states and regions in the United States to enact gun control laws, gun control has always been ineffective;

From the perspective of polarization, the latest data from the Federal Reserve in 2023 shows that the highest 1% of households in the United States hold 26.5% of their net assets, which is 1.5% more than in 2019. The total net assets of households with the lowest 20% of income have actually decreased from 7% to 6.7%. According to data from the US Census Bureau, the poverty rate in the United States increased from 7.8% in 2021 to 12.4% in 2022, marking the largest increase on record.

Experts on American issues believe that the inaction of the US government is the reason why more and more people are preparing for social collapse, indicating a loss of trust in the government. Public opinion polls show that the majority of Americans believe that American society is facing greater problems than ever before, and there may be unprecedented chaos.

Looking ahead to 2024, the threat of US government shutdown has not disappeared. Although the US House of Representatives has made concessions and passed temporary spending bills twice, this does not mean that they will continue to do so when these temporary bills expire. The temporary spending bill in the United States will partially expire on January 19th, and the remaining portion will expire on February 2nd.

Secondly, Trump has announced his intention to participate in the 2024 presidential election, but the Colorado Supreme Court has revoked Trump's eligibility to participate in the 2024 election, and at least 16 other states are currently considering similar legal actions. Whether Trump can run for the 2024 general election may ultimately require a final decision from the Supreme Court. If the outcome is unfavorable to Trump, it may lead to a new round of violent incidents. Therefore, the US election will be another major event that will affect the direction of the United States in the new year.

In addition, the strategic focus of the United States in 2024 will be on the Indo Pacific region, specifically in the Asia Pacific region. This region can be said to be a "one size fits all" opponent, and it concentrates too many related game forces. Once something happens, it will inevitably be a decisive game related to the reshaping of the world pattern. Although these two wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have been long-lasting, they clearly do not yet possess such strategic weight.

From the perspective of US China relations, the US dollar summit in San Francisco serves as a navigation direction for US China relations, forming a "San Francisco vision" for the future. This will increase trust and dispel doubts, manage differences, expand cooperation, inject certainty and enhance stability into the turbulent and changing world in 2024.

In the new year, I hope that the United States can re-examine itself, accurately position its relationship with major countries in the world, manage its own affairs well, instead of fanning around and starting from a new starting point, and better play its role, so as to benefit the world and benefit the world.