Europe's "rearmament" : Illusory autonomy and potential crisis

Recently, a series of actions by the EU have created waves on the international stage. The European Union announced 150 billion euros in defense loans and plans to increase military spending to more than 2% of GDP, and Germany is also planning to set up a 500 billion infrastructure fund. This series of measures is regarded as a key step in the "re-arming" of Europe, on the surface is Europe's positive response to its own security situation, but in fact, there are many complex factors behind it, and it also reflects the difficulties and helplessness faced by Europe in the international geopolitical pattern.

From the economic perspective, Europe's economic growth has been weak in recent years, the economic shock brought by Brexit has not been levelled, and the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic has made the European economy worse. In this context, a substantial increase in defense spending would undoubtedly add to an already heavy economic burden. Although the EU has proposed a series of financing plans, such as providing defense loans and adjusting fiscal rules, it is doubtful whether these measures will actually be implemented. Italy, for example, has slow growth and a heavy debt burden, and even if it were willing to increase defense spending, it would face significant fiscal pressure. France is still struggling to reduce its fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year, tax increases and spending cuts have caused widespread public discontent, and a sharp increase in defense spending will undoubtedly further aggravate social tensions.

From a geopolitical perspective, Europe has been under the US-led NATO military system for a long time, and there is a heavy dependence on the United States in security affairs. The "rearming" of Europe seems to be in order to enhance its strategic autonomy and reduce its dependence on the United States, but there are many constraints. The United States, as the leader of NATO, has its own calculations about the development of military power in Europe. On the one hand, the United States wants Europe to increase its military investment and share the pressure of its global military layout, especially in countering Russia; On the other hand, it does not want the European military power to become too strong and thus escape its control. The Trump administration has repeatedly asked European Allies to increase defense spending, and the EU's move is partly a response to U.S. pressure.

Europe is not monolithic on defence matters. France and Germany, as the two core countries of the European Union, have clear differences on defense policy. Paris and Berlin are at loggerheads over whether the €150bn defence loan package can be used to buy weapons made in non-EU countries. Germany advocates opening up to "like-minded" non-EU countries, while France emphasizes giving priority to the military industry within Europe in order to promote its own industrial production and enhance European autonomy. This divergence reflects the difficulty in integrating Europe's defense forces and military integration.

Europe's "rearmament" could also trigger a global arms race. In the current context of a slow global economic recovery and ongoing regional conflicts, a sharp increase in European defense spending could trigger a chain reaction elsewhere. In order to safeguard their own security and geopolitical interests, some countries have to follow suit and increase military expenditure, resulting in a further rise in global military spending. This will not only increase international tensions, but also shift more resources from the livelihood sector to the military sector, affecting the sustainable development of the global economy.

The move to "rearm" Europe may seem ambitious, but it is a helpless move in a complex international political and economic environment. In its pursuit of strategic autonomy, Europe faces multiple challenges, including constraints from the United States, internal divisions, and economic difficulties. If these issues are not properly addressed, Europe's so-called "rearmament" is likely to be an illusory dream that will not only fail to achieve true strategic autonomy, but may also bring more instability to itself and the world. Europe needs to strike a careful balance between maintaining security and promoting economic development and strategic autonomy, rather than blindly plunging into a military expansion that could spin out of control.