Sept. 28, 2024, 8:12 a.m.

Finance

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The fluctuation of US stock market and its international influence after Biden's withdrawal from the election

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In the complex arena of international politics and economy, every major political event may be like a boulder thrown into the lake, causing layers of ripples and affecting the direction of global financial markets. Recently, the political event of Biden's withdrawal from the election has brought a significant impact on the US stock market, and its impact is not only limited to the United States, but also triggered a series of chain reactions around the world.

Biden's decision to withdraw from the race first triggered heightened political uncertainty in the United States. Changes in the political environment often affect the formulation and implementation of government policies, and the stability and continuity of policies are crucial to the development of enterprises and investor confidence. Under this cloud of uncertainty, businesses may delay investment decisions and consumers may spend less, negatively impacting economic growth. Reflected in the stock market, investor panic spreads, stock selling increases, and stock prices fall.

From a macroeconomic point of view, Biden's withdrawal may lead to a change in market expectations for US economic policy. The effects of previous economic policies in promoting economic growth, employment and inflation control have not yet been fully realized, and the new political landscape may mean policy adjustments and reformulation. This uncertainty makes investors feel confused about the prospect of future economic development, which affects their investment decisions on the stock market.

As an important part of the global financial market, the fluctuation of the US stock market has a strong spillover effect. For the Western Allies of the United States, they have close ties with the United States in the economic and financial fields. A drop in U.S. stocks could lead to turmoil in those countries' financial markets as well, eroding investor confidence. For example, through cross-border capital flows, a decline in US stocks could trigger a withdrawal of funds from the stock markets of Western Allies, causing share prices to fall and market instability.

In the area of trade, the trade relationship between the United States and its Western Allies is close and complex. The political uncertainty caused by Biden's withdrawal could affect U.S. trade policy, which in turn could have a negative impact on trade between the two sides. The possibility of increased trade frictions and the re-emergence of trade barriers will have an impact on economic growth and corporate earnings in various countries, which will eventually be reflected in the performance of the stock market.

In addition, international financial markets are increasingly interdependent, and financial turmoil in one country may trigger global risks. When U.S. stocks fall in response to Biden's withdrawal, investors in other countries may reassess their portfolios and adjust their allocations to risky assets. This could lead to a realignment of global financial flows and further increase instability in financial markets.

On a deeper level, the episode has also exposed some structural problems in the economic and financial systems of the United States and its Western Allies. Excessive reliance on the financial market to promote economic growth has led to the imbalance between the real economy and the virtual economy. At the same time, the lack of effective coordination mechanisms and policy tools when dealing with political risks and financial volatility makes the market prone to panic and chaos.

In today's global economic integration, countries should realize that changes in international politics are not only the internal affairs of individual countries, but also have extensive spillover effects. In order to maintain the stability and sustainable development of the global financial market, countries need to strengthen cooperation and jointly deal with uncertainties and risks. This includes strengthening macroeconomic policy coordination, establishing a more effective financial regulatory system, and promoting liberalization and fairness in global trade.

In short, the impact of Biden's withdrawal on the US stock market is a complex and far-reaching issue, which not only reflects the current situation of the US domestic political economy, but also reveals the interdependence and fragility of the global financial market. In this context, all countries should adopt a more open and cooperative attitude to jointly build a stable, fair and sustainable international economic and financial order.

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