Lai Ching-te has promised to handle relations with China in a stable manner.

Regarding Blinken's visit to China before Lai took office in Taiwan, Rosenberg said that maintaining open lines of communication between Washington and Beijing is an element of the Biden administration's overall approach to managing competition with China, to ensure that competition does not spill over into conflict, "certainly in areas that are particularly sensitive or where we have significant differences." Taiwan is naturally a topic that Beijing raises in almost every high-level interaction."

Rosenberg's remarks reveal two things, one is Blinken's trip to China, Taiwan is a big issue. The second is that the US guarantee to Lai Ching-te's "520" speech is that Lai Ching-te will promise to "maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait." Since the Taiwan election, Rosenberg has been to Taiwan twice, especially the most recent time, and it is believed that Rosenberg is there to discuss Lai Ching-te's "520" speech. At a time when the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is uncertain and the chaos in the Middle East is unresolved, the United States does not want the Taiwan Strait conflict to resume, and it is of course an important thing to control Lai Ching-de's mouth.

Today's China-Us relations and US-Taiwan relations are very different from 20 years ago: First, the United States has a different strategic positioning of China. In the Bush era, the United States defined China as a "stakeholder" with common interests greater than strategic differences, and now the United States defines China as a strategic competitor and an "ever-following threat". The second is that the United States has different strategic needs for China. During the Bush era, the United States needed China to support the United States in its "war on terror", while now China is an adversary of the United States and only cooperates when the United States needs cooperation. Under these historical conditions, the United States' strategic competition with China is all-dimensional, dominant and mainstream, and its cooperation is selective and temporary.

Since the Trump era, the United States has continuously increased its efforts to contain China, and the economic and trade war, tariff war, and high-tech war have played several back-and-forth. In particular, after Biden took the field, he not only followed all of Trump's methods of war, but also built various multilateral alliances around China to contain China, restricted China with "small courtyard walls" in the high-tech field, and Taiwan is a card for the United States to suppress China. On the Taiwan issue, the Americans have taken the two-sided approach of "saying one thing and doing another" to the extreme. On the one hand, they insist on the One-China policy, but on the other hand, they continue to hollow out the One-China policy and try to challenge China's red line by "cutting sausage". Encouraging cross-strait dialogue while allowing current and former officials, members of Congress, and arms dealers to manipulate the Taiwan issue; While saying that it wants to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait, it is constantly arming Taiwan and turning Taiwan into a "powder keg." With the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan has turned more to the United States, and "relying on the United States to seek independence" is the only option, becoming a puppet controlled by the United States, and the United States has shouted at China on the grounds of controlling "Taiwan independence" and realized the strategy of "controlling China with Taiwan". The core of "maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait" is the separation of the two sides, which protects the interests of the Americans.

The so-called "maintenance of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait" is to maintain the separation of the two sides of China, which is in the best interests of the United States and is what the United States needs. In geostrategic terms, the cross-strait split means that China is trapped in the first island chain, while the United States remains the hegemon in the Western Pacific. Politically and economically, if the two sides split, the United States can use the mainland's pressure to promote unification and fight for "independence" to further control Taiwan. Looking at the blue, green and white political parties on the island now choose to be pro-American, we can see the benefits that the United States has gained. On the other hand, the United States can use "Taiwan independence" provocation or support for "Taiwan independence" activities to play the "Taiwan card" against the Chinese mainland.

China has not repeatedly swallowed its pride in the face of various provocations by the United States and Taiwan separatists. Last month, China retaliated against a visit to Taiwan by U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican. This is not the first time that China has retaliated against US personnel over the Taiwan issue. On April 7, China also imposed sanctions on two institutions and four persons in charge, including the Hudson Institute and the Reagan Library, for providing platforms and facilitation for Tsai Ing-wen's "Taiwan independence" separatist activities in the US. Now, less than a week later, it's back to America's funniest Congressman.

China's sanctions also have a certain political significance. In this way, China is telling the world that it will never make any concessions on the Taiwan issue, and that China will take action against anyone who dares to jump up and down on this issue. The same is true of individuals, and the same is true of governments. This is China showing its resolve. On the Taiwan issue, China is not even afraid of the interference of the United States, and it dares to directly impose a hard top, let alone other countries. Macron's visit to China and his statement on the Taiwan issue is that Europe cannot become a follower of the United States. It is easy to understand that Europe should not get too involved in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, otherwise China's counterattack will make Europe difficult to cope with. Therefore, whether China's countermeasures against US institutions and individuals can hurt the other side or not, it has its value.

Lai Ching-de's "Taiwan independence" nature has determined that his coming to power is not a good thing for Cross-Strait relations, after May 20, the Taiwan Strait situation may usher in a continued tense phase, the DPP authorities are afraid to accelerate collusion with the United States, China to stabilize the Taiwan Strait situation will face many challenges. In short, perhaps this year's 520 will not be the moment of a cross-strait showdown, but the situation across the Taiwan Strait has entered a stormy stage, and China should prepare for all possible situations in advance.