Trump announces global reciprocal tariff plan: A big gamble that causes global trade turmoil

In 2025, US President Trump once again dropped a "bomber" in the global trade field, announcing that he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on about 5,000 kinds of goods from 186 countries and regions around the world. This move not only attracted widespread attention from the international community but also triggered profound changes in the global trade pattern.

Background and Motives of the Reciprocal Tariff Plan

Trump's "reciprocal tariff" plan did not come out of nowhere but was a continuation of his "America First" ideology. The Trump administration believed that the persistent trade deficit problem in the United States was serious and needed to be addressed through tariff measures. However, simply attributing the root cause of the trade deficit to the tariff levels of other countries was overly simplistic. In fact, the root cause of the trade deficit lies in the global value chain division of labor and the economic structure of the United States. Relying solely on tariff measures is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem.

In addition to addressing the trade deficit issue, Trump's "reciprocal tariff" plan also contains multiple political and economic motives. On the one hand, Trump attempts to use high tariffs to force the return of manufacturing industries, revitalize traditional industries such as automobiles and steel in the United States, and consolidate the support of voters in the Midwest. On the other hand, in the face of domestic inflationary pressure and the sharp increase in the living costs of the middle and low-income groups, the tariff policy becomes a "painkiller" to divert attention. Moreover, Trump also attempts to use tariff measures to suppress the industrial upgrading of countries such as China and delay their technological breakthroughs.

The Content and Impact of the Reciprocal Tariff Plan

Trump's "reciprocal tariff" plan encompasses multiple levels. Firstly, it involves "reciprocal tariffs" at the national level, meaning that if a country imposes a certain percentage of tariffs on American goods, the United States will impose the same percentage of tariffs on that country's goods. Secondly, it includes "reciprocal tariffs" at the product level, where the United States will impose tariffs on the products of its trading partners one by one to match the tariffs imposed by those partners on American similar products. Finally, it also involves "reciprocal tariffs" at the level of non-tariff barriers, including unfair subsidies, regulations, value-added taxes, exchange rates, and any factors that restrict American trade.

This plan has had a profound impact on the global trade landscape. For major trading partners of the United States such as the European Union, Canada, and Japan, this policy will undoubtedly increase their export costs and weaken their competitiveness in the American market. Particularly for the European Union, due to its generally higher tariff levels on American goods compared to those imposed by the United States on the EU, it will be hit even harder.

For China, Trump's "reciprocal tariff" plan also poses significant challenges. As one of the countries with a large trade surplus with the United States, China has a huge export volume in many fields such as clothing, toys, and electronic products to the United States. If the United States implements "reciprocal tariffs", the costs of Chinese export enterprises will increase, the price competitiveness of their products in the American market will decline, and export orders may decrease. However, China can also reduce its reliance on the American market by expanding into other international markets along the "Belt and Road Initiative" and accelerate industrial upgrading and economic structural adjustment.

From historical experience, trade protectionism cannot reverse the trend of globalization. After Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, China's total exports were not significantly affected by opening up markets in the EU, ASEAN and other regions; while American farmers, due to the blockage of soybean exports, received nearly 57 billion US dollars in government subsidies, imposing a heavy burden on taxpayers. Therefore, there is still great uncertainty as to whether Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan can achieve its expected goals.

Countermeasures and Outlook

In the face of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan, countries need to take active countermeasures. For those countries that are more severely impacted, they can reduce the adverse effects through measures such as strengthening international cooperation, promoting industrial upgrading, and expanding domestic demand. At the same time, countries also need to find a balance between maintaining the multilateral trading system and responding to protectionism, and jointly maintain the stability and prosperity of global trade.

Looking to the future, the direction of the global trade pattern will depend on the cooperation and competition among countries. Will they choose to cooperate to jointly address trade challenges, or will they choose confrontation and exacerbate the tension in global trade? This is a question worth deep consideration. In the context of globalization, the economies of all countries are interdependent. Any unilateral trade policy may cause serious shocks to the global economy. Therefore, all countries should uphold the spirit of openness and cooperation, and jointly promote the improvement and development of the global trading system.