Report: The global oil market could face severe oversupply by 2030

The International Energy Agency said in a report that with oil demand growth slowing and supply surging, the global oil market is expected to face a significant oversupply by 2030.

In its medium-term oil market report for 2024, released Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said Asia's fast-growing economies and strong demand from the aviation and petrochemical sectors are expected to drive oil use growth in the coming years. But the growth in oil use will increasingly be offset by the development of electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles, less oil used for power generation in the Middle East, and structural changes in the economy.

According to the report, global oil demand, including biofuels, will be about 102 million barrels per day in 2023; Between now and 2030, global oil demand is expected to plateau at around 106 million barrels a day.

The report also indicates that global oil production capacity will increase significantly in the next few years, mainly driven by the expansion of production capacity in the United States and other oil producers in the Americas, resulting in a glut of oil supply. Total global oil supply capacity is expected to be close to 114 million barrels per day by 2030, 8 million barrels per day more than demand, which could have a significant impact on the oil market.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Birol said that as the clean energy transition advances and some major economies change their economic structure, global oil demand growth is slowing and will peak in 2030.