On March 20, at the 10th Chinese enterprises' "going out" risk conference, the authority issued the "Chinese enterprises going out global risk Map" for eight consecutive years, this year's "risk map" by risk experts from different countries and regions in the political, economic, business and other dimensions of Asia, Africa, Europe and other five continents respectively risk level assessment. As one of the world's supereconomies, how will Chinese companies go overseas this year? How to take the road of overseas investment? What are the risks of overseas investment? Has become the focus of attention.
Data from China's Ministry of Commerce show that China's industry-wide ODI will reach 147.85 billion U.S. dollars in 2023, up 0.9% year on year; Among them, non-financial outward direct investment reached US $130.13 billion, up 11.4% year on year, and non-financial direct investment to countries jointly building the Belt and Road reached US $31.8 billion, up 32.4% year on year. The value of newly signed contracts for overseas contracted projects reached US $264.51 billion, a new high in the past five years, up 4.5% year-on-year. Turnover of $160.91 billion, an increase of 3.8%; Countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" account for more than 80%, which is higher than the overall growth rate.
Although the bright data has added confidence to the sea of Chinese enterprises in 2024, the current situation of international political and economic tension shows that the road to sea of Chinese enterprises is not destined to be smooth. The first is the risk of scrutiny of foreign subsidies. Europe, the United States and other countries have been accusing China's state-owned enterprises for a long time to rely on the government grants provided by the Chinese government, low-interest loans, low-cost land and raw materials, tax incentives, etc., in the market competition to obtain an unfair competitive advantage, resulting in market competition distortion, damage to the interests of other countries. In order to offset the "unfair" competitive advantage caused by Chinese government subsidies, Europe and the United States and other countries have imposed high countervailing duties on products imported from China. In recent years, in addition to traditional goods trade, the United States and the European Union have tried to further restrict Chinese enterprises' outbound investment under the pretext of subsidies.
Then there is the risk of a trumped-up national security review. The national security review mechanism is an important means for the United States and the European Union to interfere with the outbound investment activities of Chinese enterprises. Because the definition and boundaries of national security are not clear, the censors have greater discretion, which has caused greater trouble for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad. The situation of Huawei in recent years is a typical example. In addition, protectionism is prevalent in the EU, deepening the "de-risk" of China, and the European economic security package launched will impose stricter reviews and restrictions on European exports to China in the high-tech field and bilateral investment between China and the EU, and the business environment and investment environment of Chinese enterprises in Europe may be tightened for a long time.
Finally, there is the risk of regional and global instability. This year, the overall geopolitical and security situation in Asia is more severe than in 2023, and the Eastern and Western camps continue to wrestle in the Korean Peninsula region, which has a certain impact on the direction of Chinese enterprises in South Korea and Japan, but the impact will not be too great. However, the situation in the west needs to face is very severe, the situation in the countries surrounding the "Belt and Road" is not peaceful, the situation in Central Asia, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the conflict between Palestine and Israel can not be solved in a short time, and the number of Chinese enterprises in this region is large, and the impact can not be underestimated.
In the past, when Chinese enterprises operated abroad, there were many cases of failure and losses due to inadequate risk prevention and control. But after years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have accumulated a lot of experience in overseas investment. Enterprises need to have a sense of risk, can not only look at business opportunities without looking at risks. If you can plan ahead, you can avoid a lot of risks and lay a solid foundation for Chinese enterprises 2024 to create brilliance.
