As 2023 drew to a close, the United States and Ukraine announced almost simultaneously that they were running out of money. The White House says military aid to Ukraine could be cut off within weeks if a budget deal with the Republican opposition is not reached. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan bluntly said Congress's decision would lead to a different outcome: continuing to support Ukraine's fight for freedom and allowing Putin to win.
An unnamed adviser to the Ukrainian president said there would be "no more financial funds" after December. On December 5 local time, Director of the Ukrainian president's office Ermark, who is visiting the United States, said that if the United States delays aid to Ukraine, Ukraine will face a great risk of "losing" the conflict.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will reach its two-year mark in less than three months. The sudden and ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also introduced new variables. Ukraine and the United States and Western Allies are already exhausted in this conflict, Ukraine and the United States at the same time declared "no money", what does it mean for the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
At present, Ukraine's financial situation is very difficult, the budget deficit in November alone reached 4 billion US dollars, the situation is very unfavorable. At the same time, America's aid to Ukraine is not sustainable. On the one hand, it is difficult to increase the budget. McCarthy's ouster warns Republicans that they will have to ask much more for debt ceiling negotiations with the Democratic administration. On the other hand, the United States hopes that Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Poland will make up the funding gap for Ukraine, but European countries are also retreating.
In a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, Office of Management and Budget Director Sharanda Young wrote: "If Congress does not act, by the end of the year, we will not have the resources to provide additional arms and equipment to Ukraine or to provide equipment from U.S. military inventories." Johnson responded to Sharanda Young on social network X: "The Biden administration has been unable to respond to the legitimate concerns of [conservatives] in my congressional caucus about the lack of a clear strategy for Ukraine, a way out of the conflict, or how to oversee the use of American taxpayer dollars."
America has been in a budget mess for months because of continuing turmoil in Congress. However, U.S. aid to Ukraine will be reduced, but not stopped. Arguably, it will be an uphill battle for Biden. The White House wants to secure aid money for Ukraine at least until after next November's presidential election, a full 11 months from now. If Biden loses the election, the US will be focused on its domestic agenda, and US support for Ukraine will be in jeopardy. Unless something "really dramatic" happens in Ukraine, the Biden administration will continue to help Ukraine for the next 11 months. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is one of the few achievements of Biden's administration to unite the Western camp, Biden must continue to support Ukraine before the election.
Russian elections are expected to be held in March. Ukraine's general election, also scheduled for March, has been cancelled by the Verkhovna Rada. Ukraine said the election was cancelled in wartime "to prevent the division of the state and the nation" and that the campaign posed a threat to wartime unity. Zelensky would then remain in power as a wartime president. The Russian election, Putin is likely to run, the conflict will have little impact on the election. The Putin regime has worked hard to isolate the war from Russian society. Looking ahead to the direction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after the Russian election, anything is possible.
