How will the United States utilize the "double-edged sword" of immigration?

In the past two years, there have been multiple predictions of economic recession in the US economy, with immigration becoming an important factor. Especially after the Supreme Court announced on March 19th that it would temporarily allow Texas to enforce a controversial law, attention to immigration issues has intensified. This law allows state officials to arrest and detain individuals suspected of illegally entering the country, which may trigger stricter immigration measures. At the same time, the US Congress will continue to debate immigration issues this week, and the differences between Republican lawmakers and Democrats will continue to exist.

Republican lawmakers tend to seek more funding to strengthen border protection, while Democrats hope to provide faster citizenship pathways for more immigrants. However, these arguments often overlook the economic impact of immigration, especially in the context of a record increase in immigration numbers, where its economic impact becomes more significant.

Firstly, immigration provides more labor force for the United States. Philip Swagger, Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), pointed out in the agency's New Economic Outlook report last month that more workers mean more output, which in turn leads to additional tax revenue. Although not all immigrants, especially children or the physically weak, can find jobs, a large proportion of immigrants are expected to be between the ages of 25 and 54, and are considered a part of the golden age working population.

According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, by 2033, the number of workers in the United States will increase by 5.2 million compared to last year's estimate. A non partisan organization predicts that the US gross domestic product will increase by an additional $7 trillion over the next decade. Due to the increase in immigration, the inflation adjusted GDP is expected to grow by an average of 0.2 percentage points per year. The Congressional Budget Office stated that the federal government will benefit from this growth, with tax revenue increasing by $1 trillion.

Secondly, immigration helps alleviate labor shortages. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job vacancies in the United States exceeds the number of unemployed people looking for jobs by over 2 million. With the reopening of the economy, the number of job vacancies per unemployed person is much higher than currently, which forces employers to raise wages but also leads to an increase in inflation. Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Institution Center for Economic Security and Opportunity, told CNN that immigrants play a crucial role in alleviating these shortages.

However, when it comes to public education and other projects, the beneficiaries do not need to be citizens, and the surge in immigration may have negative impacts at the state and local levels. According to a report released by the US Department of Health and Human Services last month, the net cost of immigration to state and local governments is estimated to be $21.4 billion. State and local governments bear higher costs as they provide funding for most public schools across the country. In addition, the report also points out that in the past 15 years, 21% of refugees and asylum seekers have received food aid at some point, compared to 15% of the total population in the United States. There are also similar differences in housing assistance rates between immigrant groups and the total population of the United States.

In addition, immigration has led to a sluggish wage growth. The report from the Congressional Budget Office states that the increase in immigrant population "will bring downward pressure on average real wages in the short term." Real wages are the actual income after considering inflation. The Congressional Budget Office pointed out that part of the reason is that immigrants often work in industries with lower wages, which puts downward pressure on overall wages. The institution predicts that after 2027, as migrant workers acquire more advanced skills, this trend will be "partially reversed". But the report predicts that, on average, without current immigration trends, real wages will be lower than their original levels by 2034.

In summary, the immigration issue in the United States has a dual nature, with both advantages and disadvantages, and the specific impact depends on how the US government utilizes these increased populations. The government needs to balance immigration policies, ensure border security and legal management, rather than solely considering its own interests to avoid adverse consequences.