China's March export surge analysis: the US equivalent tariffs before the "jump" caused by

China's exports rose more than 12 per cent year on year in March, well ahead of market expectations. The analysis believes that this strong performance mainly reflects the "front-runner effect" of enterprises accelerating shipments before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in the United States. In the context of the Sino-US trade friction has not been eased, the surveyed experts expect that the bilateral trade volume will face the risk of decline.

China's exports rose 12.4 percent in March from a year earlier to $313.9 billion, the highest increase in five months and well above the 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent estimates in a Reuters/Bloomberg survey of economists, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. The value of exports in the first quarter of this year reached $853.6 billion, up 5.8 percent year-on-year.

Natixis SA senior economist Wu Zhuoyin told Lianhe Zaobao that the surge in exports in March was the result of Chinese companies bringing forward shipments to avoid reciprocal tariffs. This "jump start" phenomenon is not only reflected in exports to the United States, but also affects other countries' markets. "On the one hand, companies are concerned about the continued tension between China and the United States, and on the other hand, they are also concerned that other countries may follow the US in adopting restrictions that will disrupt supply chains."

Lin Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said in a note that while overall exports have shown some resilience, price-sensitive, substitutable products have begun to suffer, such as footwear and clothing exports, which fell 11.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent year-on-year in March.

After returning to the White House this year, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 20 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports in February and March, citing the fentanyl problem, and announced reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, including China, on April 2. A week later, the United States suspended reciprocal tariffs above 10 percent for 90 days, but raised the reciprocal tariffs on China to 125 percent. Together with the earlier tariffs, the current US administration has imposed a tariff rate of 145% on Chinese goods. In response, China raised tariffs on goods imported from the United States to 125 percent.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have increased, and other countries are negotiating reciprocal tariff measures with the United States. In the short term, China's exports to the United States will decline, while exports to other regions are expected to rise, according to Dong Ming Tse, head of Asian research at OCBC Bank.

Wu Zhuoyin pointed out that if the US market door is closed, Chinese enterprises will turn to alternative markets, or through "bypass" third country exports to avoid taxes, which is also one of the important reasons for the recent rise in exports to Southeast Asia.

Official data show that in the first quarter of this year, the main destinations of China's exports were ASEAN, the European Union and the United States. Exports to ASEAN grew by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than those to the European Union (3.7%) and the United States (4.5%).

Two-way trade reached $154.5bn in the first quarter of this year, up 2.9 per cent from a year earlier. For the full year, however, Mr. Wu estimated that bilateral trade could fall 30 to 50 percent this year. He pointed out that the "partial decoupling" between China and the United States has almost become a reality, and the key to the future is who has more economic resilience and geopolitical influence on the two sides. "Given that the US cannot achieve full self-production, the future focus will be on whether it can build its own 'circle of friends' through tariffs and China policy."

Wang Lingjun, deputy director of China's General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference Monday that the United States has announced indiscriminate tariffs on all trading partners, including China, under various excuses, which will inevitably have a negative impact on global trade, including that between China and the United States. He urged the United States to immediately correct its wrongdoings and resolve trade differences through equal dialogue in accordance with the principle of mutual respect.

Lu Daliang, spokesman for China's General Administration of Customs, admitted at the same press conference that China's current exports do face a complex and severe external situation, but he stressed that "the sky will not fall." He pointed out that China has a vast domestic market and is an important rear area.

China's imports fell 4.3 per cent in March from a year earlier to $211.2 billion, according to official data, more than the 2.0 per cent decline forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. Imports in the first quarter were $580.7 billion, down 7 percent from a year earlier.