Durian exports are increasingly competitive with Vietnam and Malaysia challenging Thailand's position

According to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, the International Trade Center, fresh durian exports from Malaysia to China totalled US $4 million between August and October last year as Malaysia and China signed an agreement. Malaysia is expected to become an important exporter of fresh durian to China.

The agreement signed in June last year allowed Malaysia to export fresh durians to China, whereas previously it was only allowed to export frozen fruit pulp and whole frozen durians.

"We forecast that demand for durian in China will continue to strengthen and therefore expect investment in the sector to increase in the short to medium term," BMI said in a statement quoted by Nanyang Siang Pau.

Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to be "on a par" with Thailand, with exports of durian from both countries rising sharply.

"In recent years, durian exports have become an increasingly important source of export revenue for regional producers [in Southeast Asia] and we expect the market to become increasingly competitive."

BMI also expects a sharp increase in durian exports from Vietnam and Malaysia, threatening Thailand's position as the world's largest durian exporter.

Thailand is currently the world's largest exporter of fresh "king fruit", accounting for 63.8% of all exports between 2013 and 2023.

BMI said Thailand's durian exports have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% over the past 10 years and 8.6% over the past five years, indicating strong momentum in the sector. "Market concentration is expected to decline in the near term as output and exports to other markets grow."

In addition, the growing importance of durian production in Vietnam also poses a crisis for the country's coffee industry.

"To date, Vietnam is the world's leading Robusta coffee bean producer. However, some farmers in Vietnam choose to grow durian instead of coffee, and the benefit is that increasing intercropping in durian gardens can improve the resilience of the farm."