Apple May Lose $900 Million in the Third Fiscal Quarter Due to Trump's Tariff Policy

Recently, the uncertainty of US trade policy has had a significant impact on the business community, and Apple has been the first to bear the brunt. US President Trump previously announced that if Apple insists on not producing iPhones entirely in the US, a tariff of at least 25% will be imposed on its products manufactured overseas. This move has posed unprecedented challenges to Apple's global supply chain layout and cost control.

At the earnings call for the second fiscal quarter of 2025, which Apple announced in May, Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, said that the company expects to lose approximately $900 million in the third fiscal quarter (from March 30 to June 28, 2025) due to US tariff policies. Cook said that the proposed tariffs on foreign - imported products by the US will lead to a significant increase in the company's costs in the third fiscal quarter.

Currently, the source of Apple's product supply in the US market is undergoing major changes. Cook revealed that most of the iPhones sold in the US in the third fiscal quarter will come from India, and most of the iPads, Macs, and Apple Watches will come from Vietnam, while the vast majority of Apple products for markets outside the US will still come from China. Although Apple has been working hard to diversify its supply chain, Trump's tariff threat has still had a huge impact on it.

Previously, both Steve Jobs, the founder of Apple, and the current CEO Cook have told the US government that it is not that they do not want to set up factories in the US to produce smartphones, but that it is difficult to recruit a large number of engineers needed in the US. In addition, the high labor cost in the US also makes it more economical for companies to set up factories overseas. Neil Shah, the vice - president of Counterpoint Market Research, a globally renowned market research institution in the technology industry, pointed out that without huge government subsidies and cheaper and more skilled labor, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to return to the US because the US manufacturing industry has no cost advantage.

Dan Ives, the global technology research director of Wedbush Securities, a financial services company, analyzed that if the tariff factor is considered, the price of Apple phones may be as high as $2,300, and if they are produced in the US, the price may even soar to $3,500, more than three times the current price, and ultimately, consumers will bear the pressure of this price increase. Brett House, a professor of economics at Columbia University, also said that imposing tariffs will complicate Apple's supply chain and financing, thereby increasing consumer costs, which is not a good thing for US consumers.

Moreover, in addition to facing the challenge of tariff policies, Apple is also caught in the whirlpool of antitrust litigation. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers of the US District Court for the Northern District of California has required Apple to relax its control over the app store, stop charging commissions on the sales of some apps, and ruled that Apple "blatantly defied the court's injunction" and asked prosecutors to investigate Apple for "criminal contempt of court." Apple has said that it will appeal the ruling.

Trump's tariff threat has not only affected Apple's business strategy and financial situation but also raised investors' concerns about Apple's profit prospects. Affected by this, Apple's stock price has fluctuated after the relevant news was released. The market generally pays attention to how Apple will further adjust its production strategy to cope with the challenges brought by the US tariff policy. At the same time, it also pays attention to the trend of Trump administration's trade policy and its far - reaching impact on the global technology industry supply chain. In the context of global economic integration, any change in trade policy may trigger a chain reaction, and Apple's response measures may provide important references for other multinational enterprises.