IMF: Trump's tariffs have the greatest impact on the growth of the US economy

The International Monetary Fund said that due to the uncertainties brought about by tariffs, the United States is expected to become the developed economy most severely affected by tariffs.

The BBC reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday (April 22), predicting that the US economic growth rate will slow to 1.8% in 2025, 0.9 percentage points lower than the January forecast, with the largest downward revision among developed economies.

The IMF also said that the possibility of the United States falling into an economic recession is 40%. Financial industry associations such as the Institute of International Finance (IIF) also predict that the United States will fall into recession this year.

The report holds that the intensification of policy uncertainty, trade tensions and the weakening of demand momentum are the main reasons for the downward revision of the expected target.

Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the IMF, said in an interview that if Trump does not withdraw tariffs, the possibility of a U.S. economic recession and the subsequent global economic recession is "almost 100%".

The IMF raised its economic growth forecast for China in 2025 to 4.6% on the same day, 0.1 percentage point higher than the forecast in October last year. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the chief economist of the IMF, said in a blog post that elections were held in several major economies in 2024, leading to increased uncertainty in economic policies.

In addition, the IMF has lowered its economic growth forecast for Canada to 1.4%, compared with 2.0% in January. Japan revised down from 1.1% to 0.6%. The UK has been revised down from 1.6% to 1.1%. Germany has revised down from 0.3% to 0.0%. Italy revised down from 0.7% to 0.4%. France has revised down from 0.8% to 0.6%.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told CNBC in an interview that there is room for negotiation between the European Union and the United States on the issue of tariffs. In some fields, both sides "need to conduct serious negotiations", and both sides must do so.

Lagarde is convinced that the European Union and the United States will hold negotiations.

The Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank Group was held in Washington, the United States from April 23rd to 24th.