Potential crisis in semiconductor exports under pressure from the United States

On the stage of global technological competition, the semiconductor industry is undoubtedly a shining pearl, and its importance is self-evident. However, in recent years, under pressure from the United States, Japan has gradually tightened its semiconductor technology exports, which has not only had a significant impact on the global semiconductor industry chain, but also brought many potential crises to Japan itself.

In July last year, Japan's new regulations restricting the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment officially came into force, strictly controlling the export of 23 kinds of high-performance semiconductor manufacturing equipment, requiring that the export of these equipment to Chinese Mainland must obtain the separate permission of the Minister of Economy and Industry. In April this year, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry once again expanded the scope of export controls, including four categories of semiconductor and quantum related technologies. All countries and regions need to obtain official permits before importing these technologies. This series of measures taken by Japan may seem to be in response to pressure from the United States, but in reality, it is a short-sighted behavior.

From the perspective of the global semiconductor industry chain, Japan's export control measures undoubtedly have a significant impact on the industry chain. The semiconductor industry is a highly globalized industry, and countries and regions play an indispensable role in the industry chain. As the world's largest electronic product manufacturing base and an important semiconductor market, China has a huge demand for semiconductor equipment and technology. Japan's high-performance semiconductor manufacturing equipment occupies an important position in the global market, and its export restrictions to China will directly affect the development of China's semiconductor industry, thereby affecting the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain.

On the one hand, the development of China's semiconductor industry is hindered, which may lead to a shortage of global electronic product supply. China is the world's largest producer of electronic products such as smartphones and computers. If there is a shortage of semiconductor supply, it will affect the production and export of these products, thereby affecting the interests of global consumers. On the other hand, Japan's export control measures may also trigger countermeasures from other countries, further exacerbating global trade tensions. In today's globalized world, economic ties between countries are becoming increasingly close, and any trade protectionism by one party may trigger a chain reaction and have a negative impact on the global economy.

From Japan's own perspective, tightening semiconductor technology exports is not a wise move. Firstly, Japan's semiconductor industry is highly dependent on exports, and China is one of its important markets. Export control measures will lead to a decrease in market share and performance damage for Japanese semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, due to the decrease in market demand, companies may reduce their R&D investment, affecting the pace of technological innovation and weakening the competitiveness of Japan's semiconductor industry. Secondly, Japan's export control measures may prompt China to accelerate its independent research and development process in the semiconductor industry. In recent years, China's investment in the semiconductor field has been continuously increasing, and its technological level has also been gradually improving. Japan's export restrictions will stimulate Chinese companies' awareness of independent innovation and accelerate the process of domestic substitution. Once China achieves independent and controllable semiconductor technology, Japan's position in the global semiconductor market will be further challenged.

From Japan's own point of view, tightening semiconductor technology exports is not wise. First of all, Japan's semiconductor industry is highly dependent on exports, and China is one of its important markets. Export control measures will cause Japanese semiconductor companies to lose market share and suffer performance. At the same time, due to the decrease in market demand, enterprises may reduce research and development investment, affecting the pace of technological innovation, thus weakening the competitiveness of the Japanese semiconductor industry. Second, Japan's export control measures may prompt China to accelerate its own research and development in the semiconductor industry. In recent years, China's investment in the semiconductor field has been increasing, and the technical level is gradually improving. Japan's export restrictions will stimulate the awareness of independent innovation of Chinese enterprises and accelerate the process of substitution of Chinese products. Once China realizes the autonomous control of semiconductor technology, Japan's position in the global semiconductor market will be further challenged.

For Japan, it should re-examine its semiconductor export policy and weigh the relationship between short-term interests and long-term development. On the one hand, Japan can jointly explore the semiconductor market and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results through cooperation with countries such as China. On the other hand, Japan should also increase its research and development investment in the semiconductor industry, improve its technological innovation capabilities, and enhance its position in the global semiconductor industry chain. Only in this way can Japan stand undefeated in global technological competition and achieve sustainable economic development.