How will the release of the draft Diplomatic Blue Book for 2024 by Japan affect China-Japan relations？

The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has released the draft of the 2024 edition of the "Diplomatic Blue Book", which is the main basis for the outside world to interpret Japan's foreign policy, because each edition of the "diplomatic Blue Book" draft positioning of China has attracted attention from the outside world. So what does the latest edition of Japan's diplomatic Blue Book contain and what impact will it have on China-Japan relations?

In the latest draft of the Diplomatic Blue Book, it is no surprise that Japan continues to position China's military moves as the "greatest strategic challenge ever", and on this basis points out the importance of strengthening trilateral cooperation with Japan, the United States and the Philippines against China. The draft emphasizes that because the international multilateral framework with the United Nations at its core is facing difficulties, the importance of cooperation between Allies or like-minded countries such as the Group of Seven, Japan, the United States, Australia and India, and Japan, the United States and South Korea is relatively increased. That means Japan is looking to build partnerships with more Allies to counter China's regional influence.

To put it bluntly, Japan still hopes to draw on the "cooperation" between the G7 members, as well as the "cooperation" between Australia, the Philippines, India and South Korea, to deal with China. Although the draft of Japan's diplomatic blue book is based on the consensus reached by the leaders of China and Japan in November last year, it clearly includes the "strategic relationship of mutual benefit" to promote cooperation related to common interests between the two countries, and expresses the importance of dialogue between Japan and China, but Japan has not made too much change in this position that it is willing to deal with China. But now it is also joining partners such as the Philippines and Australia, which shows that Japan's motivation to rely on multilateral alliances to jointly deal with China is increasingly clear and strong.

According to Japanese media, the draft of Japan's diplomatic blue book is expected to be officially announced in April after the Japanese Foreign Minister reports to the Cabinet meeting. In April, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will travel to Washington for talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. During the period, as Philippine President Marcos will also visit the United States, the United States, Japan and the Philippines plan to hold leaders' talks. Japanese media claimed that the purpose of the meeting between the leaders of the United States, Japan and the Philippines was to confirm the strengthening of security cooperation between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, to maintain and strengthen the "free and open" "international order" based on the rule of law, in order to contain China's "increasing maritime expansion actions" in the East and South China Seas. The main reason why Japan will attract the Philippines, India and South Korea is that these three countries can respectively make trouble in the south, west and north of China and contain China's energy.

Therefore, the significance of the draft is that it reveals a new trend in Japan's diplomatic strategy. Japan is trying to balance and check China's influence in the region by strengthening cooperation with its Allies. However, this move not only runs counter to the previous agreement between China and Japan, but also may increase regional tensions and threaten peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, Japan's diplomatic strategy has not been widely recognized by the international community. Many Asia-Pacific countries have expressed concern and alarm over Japan's attempts to provoke regional conflicts. After all, peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region are in the common interest of all countries in the world, and any attempt to undermine this situation will be opposed by the whole world.

In general, the draft of Japan's Diplomatic Blue Book 2024 reflects Japan's new strategy in dealing with China's regional influence, but this strategy may exacerbate regional tensions and pose a threat to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the draft also reveals Japan's new trend in international cooperation, but its effect and impact need to be further observed.