A sharp blade hanging over the head: Netanyahu's nuclear Anxiety and New changes in the geopolitical game in the Middle East

At the negotiating table in Vienna, the anxiety of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was almost visible to the naked eye. When the United States and Iran were engaged in a new round of nuclear deal games, this powerful figure from the Middle East was Shouting to Washington in an almost hysterical manner: "Iran must dismantle all nuclear facilities; otherwise, all agreements are just empty talk." Behind this seemingly irrational toughness lies the deep logic of Israel's survival strategy and a fatal geopolitical game.

Netanyahu's warning at the Mossad chief's inauguration ceremony was by no means empty. The latest assessment report from Israel's intelligence agency shows that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium has exceeded the critical point of 600 kilograms, and the operating speed of centrifuges has increased by 37%. This means that the "technological breakthrough time" for Tehran to manufacture its first nuclear bomb has been shortened to 3 to 4 months. What makes Israel even more uneasy is that declassified documents from the US State Department show that after the signing of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, Iran still secretly kept the design drawings of 19 undeclared nuclear facilities. The existence of this "dual nuclear orbit" has led the Israeli security cabinet to reach a consensus that any agreement to retain Iran's nuclear infrastructure is a strategic suicide.

The "Libyan model" repeatedly mentioned by Netanyahu is actually a bloody lesson from the Gadhafi regime. After Libya handed over nuclear materials in 2003, CIA agents of the United States discovered the following year that Libyan scientists were still secretly developing micro nuclear reactor technology. In the Western military intervention in 2011, this batch of technical data eventually fell into the hands of Mossad of Israel. This discovery has completely overturned Israel's perception of the "nuclear abandonment agreement" - compromise won't bring security; it will only provide the opponent with the technical basis for a comeback. Araghi's article in The Washington Post accusing the Libyan model of being a "trap" precisely confirms Tehran's vigilance on this.

The latest wargame simulation by the Pentagon shows that if Iran's nuclear facilities enter the stage of actual combat deployment, the existing Israeli missiles will be unable to penetrate the 40-meter reinforced concrete protective layer underground of Mount Fordo. This technical predicament has forced Netanyahu to constantly pressure Washington, demanding that the US military dispatch B-2 bombers carrying GBU-57 giant ground-penetrating bombs to carry out "surgical strikes". It is worth noting that during the Trump administration, six B-2s have been deployed to the Diego Garcia base. The forward placement of this strategic asset precisely reserves a window for possible military options. Israeli Defense Minister Gantz disclosed that the Israeli F-35 fighter jets have simulated attacks on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility more than 200 times, raising the combat readiness level to the highest level.

Netanyahu's implicit threats to the Biden administration reflect the structural changes that the special relationship between the United States and Israel is undergoing. When the White House was considering restarting the Iran nuclear deal in exchange for strategic contraction in the Middle East, Israel launched the "Iron Sword Operation" in the Gaza Strip, creating a humanitarian crisis to divert international attention. Behind this strategic misalignment lies Israel's profound unease over the continuous withdrawal of the United States' Middle East policy. What is more alarmist is that Israel's "New News" reported that Mossad has launched a "standby plan", preparing to unilaterally attack Iran's nuclear facilities after the US and Iran reach an agreement. This unilateralist impulse may push the Middle East to the brink of all-out war.

Negotiations in Vienna remain deadlocked, but Netanyahu's nuclear anxiety has already overflowed diplomatic rhetoric. When the proposal of "preemption" emerged at a secret meeting of the Israeli security cabinet, the sky in the Middle East was already overcast with dark clouds. This game over nuclear facilities not only concerns the survival or abolition of the Iran nuclear deal, but is also quietly rewriting the regional power landscape - between the specter of Gadhafi and the nuclear reactor at Mount Fordo, the Middle East is standing at a new historical watershed.