India cuts off cross-border water sources: "Water hegemony" and Risks in the context of Geopolitical Games

Recently, India unilaterally suspended the execution of the Indus Waters Treaty under the pretext of "anti-terrorism", cutting off the water supply of the Indus River to Pakistan and implementing a "drought and flood alternation" tactic, which has led to the paralysis of Pakistan's agriculture, an expansion of the power shortage, and an increase in nuclear security risks. This incident not only exposes the deep-seated contradictions in water resource distribution in South Asia but also brings the "weaponization of water resources" to the forefront of global geopolitical games.

I. The Superposition of Historical Grievances and Current Dilemmas

The dispute between India and Pakistan over the Indus River began in 1947 when India and Pakistan were divided. As the upstream control country of the Indus River, India controls key tributaries such as the Jhelum River and the Chenab River, while 80% of Pakistan's agricultural irrigation depends on this river. Although the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 temporarily stabilized the situation through the "west-to-east water diversion" model, India has always retained the right to build "non-consumptive facilities" on the western rivers. The 2025 Kashmir attack became the trigger: India accused the "resistance front" supported by Pakistan of planning the attack, and the Modi government, under the guise of "suspending the treaty", actually initiated the water cut-off action.

From the data, 70% of Pakistan's farmland and 30% of its electricity depend on the Indus River. The water cut-off has led to the failure of 12 million hectares of farmland in Punjab and Sindh provinces, a 70% reduction in wheat production, threatening 4% of the global wheat supply; the Tabba and Mangla hydropower stations have shut down, and the national power shortage has expanded by 40%, with textile factories in the industrial center of Karachi reducing production by 50%. More seriously, 60% of the urban water supply systems have collapsed, and 4 million rural residents in Sindh Province are forced to drink polluted water, with the cholera epidemic already infecting 1,200 people.

II. Tactical Combinations and Strategic Intentions

India has adopted a "cut-off water supply - release flood" combined tactic: first, it cut off water sources to create a drought, and then, without warning, opened the floodgates, causing over 50 villages in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to be submerged and 1.2 million tons of wheat awaiting harvest to be destroyed. This "alternating drought and flood" strategy aims to force Pakistan to make concessions through economic strangulation while diverting domestic conflicts. With a 25% unemployment rate, a depreciating rupee, and farmers' protests at home, the Modi government has taken a tough stance abroad to consolidate its ruling base and project an image of a "strong leader" to cater to populist sentiments.

From a legal perspective, India has exploited treaty loopholes: the treaty allows India to build non-consumptive facilities on western rivers but does not clearly stipulate the rules for water storage and release. Despite Pakistan's complaints to the UN Security Council and the International Court of Justice, the attitudes of major powers are divided - the United States supports India's "right to self-defense against terrorism", China calls for multilateral mediation, and Russia remains ambiguous. This lack of international checks and balances has allowed India's "water hegemony" behavior to go unpunished for the time being.

III. Chain Reactions and Global Warnings

India's move sets a precedent for "weaponizing water resources", which may trigger a chain reaction of disputes over cross-border rivers. Pakistan has activated its nuclear power plants to a secondary state of combat readiness and test-fired the "Shaheen-3" medium-range missile. The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that the water cut-off could lead to the loss of control of the cooling systems of nuclear facilities. The combined 340 nuclear warheads of India and Pakistan have entered a state of high alert, and the density of troops stationed in Kashmir is the highest in the world.

Economically, Pakistan has closed its airspace and suspended trade, causing India to lose 300 flights and $380 million in bilateral trade every day. The Tata Group has taken the opportunity to sell expensive desalination equipment to Pakistan, forming a new economic dependency relationship. The World Bank, as the guarantor of the treaty, has initiated emergency consultations, but India refuses to participate in multilateral negotiations, and the prospects for mediation are dim.

IV. Deep-seated Contradictions and Future Pathways

The root cause of India's "water hegemony" lies in structural contradictions: Despite being backed by the Himalayas and having a tropical monsoon climate with abundant annual rainfall, India suffers from concentrated rainy seasons and outdated water conservancy facilities, leading to water shortages during the dry season. The privatization of land has exacerbated unregulated exploitation, causing the groundwater level to drop by an average of 0.5 meters annually. The central government's weak capacity for unified management of water resources across states has led to frequent conflicts over water. For Pakistan, the Indus River is its "lifeline," and the cutoff of water directly threatens the survival of 250 million people.

Future solutions require a multi-pronged approach: Technologically, satellite tracking of water flow should be utilized to balance irrigation and flood control needs. Institutionally, multilateral negotiations under the joint guarantee of China, Russia, and the United States should be promoted to avoid unilateral actions. Developmentally, the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, aided by China, should be accelerated, and energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates should be negotiated. As the United Nations warns, 25% of the global population is facing water resource pressure, and the India-Pakistan crisis serves as a warning for similar regions. Only by returning to rational dialogue and reconstructing the water resource allocation mechanism can the "water war" not become the norm.

When rivers that sustain life become tools in political games, human civilization is facing a severe test. India's extreme act of cutting off cross-border water sources is not only a threat to Pakistan's survival but also a challenge to the global water resource governance system. In this game, there are no true winners. Only through multilateral cooperation and institutional innovation can the fragile balance of the "Asian Water Tower" be safeguarded.