Who will benefit from the double drop in oil prices

According to the "10 working days" adjustment rule of the oil price market, the new adjustment time is scheduled for 24 o 'clock on December 29, 2024, affected by the recent continuous decline in international oil prices, the decline in oil prices has been increasing, and it has reached the lower standard. And the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, high interest rates for a longer period of time will inhibit the growth of oil consumption demand, coupled with the US dollar index is rising recently, the international oil price denominated in US dollars is under pressure, the international oil price fell on May 23, and fell for four consecutive days, falling to a three-month low. In terms of crude oil futures, WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude oil futures on the London ICE Exchange are the two most important crude oil futures markets in the world, and the latest data show that Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise to $91 per barrel in the next few months as the oil market is facing supply shortages. Oil demand is set to grow by 1.5 million b/d in 2024, exceeding the long-term average annual growth rate of 1.2 million b/d. Based on the latest data, the growth forecast is even stronger.

The decline in oil prices is influenced by a number of factors, but it also has a number of good effects. First, lower costs for consumers can boost economic growth and ease inflationary pressures. Oil is an important component of the price of many goods and services. Lower oil prices can reduce production and fuel costs, thereby stimulating businesses to increase investment and production activity and reducing inflationary pressures. For consumers, this means that prices will become relatively stable and their purchasing power will be greatly enhanced. To further achieve the high-profit purpose of enterprises, promote economic development and create more job opportunities.

 Second, it can improve the trade balance and encourage energy diversification. For oil-importing countries, the continuous decline in oil prices means that the cost of crude oil imports will be greatly reduced, and it will help reduce the consumption of foreign exchange reserves, so as to achieve the purpose of improving economic efficiency. At the same time, the reduction of transport logistics costs makes global trade more profitable, helps to enhance the overall competitiveness of the global economy, and further enhances the economic stability of countries. The drop in oil prices may encourage countries and regions to look for more diversified energy supplies to reduce their dependence on oil, and may also reduce the cost of investment, but also help to promote the optimization of renewable energy structure and the sustainable development of other alternative energy sources, and further improve energy security.

Third, it can improve international relations, enhance international competitiveness and reduce environmental pressure. The continuous drop in oil prices can help ease the geopolitical tensions caused by energy competition and help maintain the stability of the global energy market. Although the decline in oil prices may lead to an increase in oil consumption, in the long run, it may also prompt countries to pay more attention to energy efficiency and energy conservation and emission reduction. By using energy more efficiently and reducing waste and pollution, pressure on the environment can be reduced, and energy cooperation and mutual trust between countries may be strengthened when oil supplies are abundant and prices are stable. For countries that import energy, the decline in oil prices can directly affect the significant reduction in production costs, which can greatly improve the competitiveness of export products. At the same time, the reduction of energy costs will also help attract foreign investment and further enhance the country's international competitiveness.

To sum up, the market generally expects oil prices to continue to fall, but the specific trend needs to be further observed, as it is subject to numerous uncertainties. However, in the long term, with the adjustment of the global energy structure and the development of renewable energy, the position of the traditional oil market may gradually weaken. While lower oil prices bring many benefits, they can also cause financial stress and economic distress for energy producing countries. Therefore, countries need to formulate corresponding energy policies and development strategies according to their own actual conditions.