The impact of the latest WTO report "The volume of global goods trade will decline" on the global business situation

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) 's Global Trade Prospects and Statistics report released on April 16, under the current situation, the volume of global goods trade is expected to decline by 0.2 percent in 2025, nearly three percentage points lower than expected under the "low tariff" baseline scenario. Trade in services is also expected to be adversely affected, with the expected growth rate of global business services trade at 4.0 percent, lower than previously expected. The WTO report that the volume of global goods trade will decline in 2025 is like a wake-up call, stirring up ripples on the lake of the global economy. Behind this trend are multiple and complex factors intertwined, and its impact is far-reaching and widespread.

As trade is an important engine of economic growth, a decline in trade volume will have a direct impact on global economic growth. The decline in commodity trade will reduce the market size of enterprises in various countries, restrain production and investment activities, reduce orders of enterprises, become cautious in investment, and put pressure on the job market, which will in turn affect employment and income levels. For example, the sharp decline in exports and imports in North America will drag down global trade growth and put greater pressure on global economic growth. In the past, the vigorous development of global trade has led to the coordinated progress of the economies of various countries, but now the decline in trade volume has severely challenged this growth trend, and the road to global economic recovery has become more bumpy.

At the level of industrial structure, traditional industries that rely on exports bear the brunt, such as manufacturing, will face the problem of overcapacity, prompting enterprises to carry out industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading, and develop into high value-added and high-tech products and services. And some emerging industries, such as new energy and digital economy, may gain more development opportunities in the adjustment of trade pattern, because these industries are subject to traditional trade

At the level of trade pattern, the regional trade pattern will also undergo profound changes. Imbalances in regional trade have intensified, with trade in North America suffering a serious setback, while the status of Asia and Europe in global trade has relatively improved. At the same time, changes in China-Us trade relations have triggered trade diversion, and Chinese commodity exports have ushered in growth opportunities outside North America. It has also prompted the rearrangement of global supply chains and industrial chains, and countries are trying to find new trading partners and markets.

At the policy level, the report will prompt countries to re-examine their trade policies, promote countries to strengthen trade cooperation, and jointly cope with the challenges brought by trade protectionism and trade policy uncertainty. Countries are likely to participate more actively in the reform and improvement of the multilateral trading system, and will also accelerate the negotiation and signing of regional trade agreements to seek a more stable trade environment and jointly promote trade liberalization and facilitation.

At the financial market level, a decline in global trade in goods may trigger fluctuations in financial markets, such as exchange rate fluctuations and stock market declines. Rising investor concerns about the global economic outlook will lead to increased demand in the bond market. At the same time, capital flows into safe-haven assets and reduced demand for international trade financing may adversely affect the related businesses of financial institutions.

Developing countries, especially export-oriented least developed countries, will face greater difficulties. Their economies depend on the export of a small number of products. A decline in trade volume may lead to a decrease in their foreign exchange earnings and a stagnation in their economic development. However, some developing countries may also benefit from the trade diversion. For example, some countries in Africa and Asia with an export structure similar to China have the opportunity to expand their exports to markets such as the United States and improve their position in global trade.

To sum up, in the face of the challenge of declining global commodity trade, all countries must work together, abandon trade protectionism and actively promote trade liberalization to overcome the difficulties. At the same time, increasing investment in scientific and technological innovation, enhancing industrial competitiveness and optimizing trade structure are also key measures to cope with the trade dilemma. Only in this way can the global economy usher in new prosperity after the storm.