Can "Reciprocal Tariffs" Improve the Lives of American Citizens?

On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration signed the so-called "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy. Under the guise of "fair trade," this policy requires all trading partners to align their tariff rates and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods with those of the United States, or face additional tariffs on the difference. The policy is implemented in two phases: a 10% "baseline tariff" will be imposed on all imported goods starting from April 5, followed by differentiated additional tariffs on 60 economies from April 9. While this policy appears aimed at addressing trade deficits and protecting domestic industries, a deeper analysis reveals that it not only fails to improve the lives of American citizens but may also bring about numerous negative consequences.

From the perspective of living costs, the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy directly drives up the daily consumption expenses of American citizens. Taking U.S.-China trade as an example, after the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, Chinese export enterprises face increased costs, and some of these costs are passed on to domestic consumers, leading to higher commodity prices. If China imposes tariffs on U.S. goods in return, the prices of imported goods will inevitably rise, and the prices of domestic substitutes will also increase due to changes in supply and demand. During the 2018 trade war, when China imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean prices rose by 10% in the short term, causing a chain reaction of price increases in cooking oil, feed, and meat, thereby increasing household daily expenditures. With the implementation of the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy, similar situations are likely to recur,加重 (in English: "exacerbating," but for consistency with the rest of the text's tone, we use "leading to an increase in") ordinary citizens' economic burdens and affecting their quality of life.

Employment pressure will also increase due to the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy. Imposing tariffs has a significant impact on export-oriented industries. China's exports to the United States account for approximately 17% of its total exports. After tariffs are imposed, the price competitiveness of products declines, and labor-intensive industries such as machinery, textiles, and furniture face contraction. To cope with rising costs and reduced market demand, enterprises may adopt measures such as layoffs, wage cuts, and production reductions, which will directly affect the income of workers. A large number of workers face the risk of unemployment or income reduction, threatening their living stability and making it difficult to improve their quality of life.

In the field of education, the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy also brings negative impacts. The United States' imposition of tariffs on China raises the cost of Chinese students studying in the United States, forcing many families to re-evaluate their study abroad options. Against the backdrop of U.S.-China trade friction, humanistic exchanges have been negatively affected, and Chinese students studying in the United States may face prejudice or unfair remarks. This psychological pressure makes some students more cautious about studying in the United States. In addition, under the influence of the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy, the United States may tighten visa policies for some Chinese students and scholars, causing a shock to academic exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States, limiting the flow of technical knowledge between the two countries, and exacerbating the gap in scientific research cooperation and technological innovation.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy violates economic laws. The principle of comparative advantage is the cornerstone of international trade theory, emphasizing that countries should focus on producing products in which they are more efficient and achieve the optimal allocation of global resources through free trade. However, the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy artificially raises trade barriers, forcing some countries to abandon specialized division of labor and转向 (in English: "shift towards," but we use "move towards" for a more natural expression) a "self-sufficiency" model, disrupting the stability of the global industrial and supply chains. At the same time, this policy violates WTO rules. Imposing different tariffs on different trading partners violates the commitment of WTO members to non-discrimination. If the United States raises tariff rates above the maximum levels agreed upon with other members, it will also be in violation. This unilateralist behavior severely undermines the multilateral trading system, impacts the global supply chain, and further intensifies international trade tensions and global economic fragmentation.

Research by the Yale University Budget Laboratory shows that the tariff measures implemented by the U.S. government this year have pushed up the overall price level by 2.3% in the short term, equivalent to an average loss of $3,800 in purchasing power for each household this year. This fully demonstrates that the "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy not only fails to improve the lives of American citizens but also subjects them to higher living costs, greater employment pressure, and a more tense international environment. The U.S. government should abandon this short-sighted unilateralist policy, return to rationality, and promote the healthy development of the global economy through equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial dialogue and cooperation. This is the correct path to truly improving the lives of American citizens.