Global Trade Policy Adjustment: Changes and New Opportunities

Recently, global trade policies are undergoing profound adjustments. From tariff games to the reconstruction of regional agreements, from technical barriers to green trade rules, countries seek a balance between protectionism and open cooperation. This adjustment not only reshapes the global industrial chain, but also tests the resilience of the multilateral trading system.

The "normalization" of the United States imposing additional tariffs on China has become a core variable in the adjustment of global trade policies. In 2025, the United States will impose tariff rates on strategic industries such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries exceeding 100%, and threaten to implement "penetrating taxation" on "re-export countries" like Mexico and Vietnam. Behind this strategy lies the Trump administration's attempt to promote the return of manufacturing through "tariff tools" while weakening China's position in the global value chain. However, the tariff war has shown a "counterproductive effect". Data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows that the trade volume of goods in North America is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025. The reduction in the United States' imports from China has directly led to a 15%-20% increase in domestic consumer goods prices. What is more worthy of attention is that Allies such as the European Union and Japan have not fully cooperated with the US strategy. Instead, they have accelerated their "de-risk" cooperation with China. For instance, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express increased by 10.7% year-on-year in 2024, highlighting the substitution role of regional trade corridors in the global supply chain.

Against the backdrop of the obstruction of the multilateral trading system, regional agreements have become the main battlefield for countries to compete for the right to formulate rules. In 2025, three major trends will be particularly evident: The United States, in collaboration with India, Japan and other countries, is attempting to establish exclusive rules in areas such as digital trade and supply chain resilience. However, due to the lack of tariff reduction commitments, the actual progress has been slow.​ Although the negotiations have not yet started, the CPTPP member countries have shown a tendency of "de-Americanization", and some countries have begun to reevaluate the feasibility of China's accession. Asean countries have been promoting the optimization of rules of origin, and the proportion of "zero-tariff" products between China and ASEAN has exceeded 90%. In 2024, the trade volume between China and ASEAN exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, accounting for 15% of China's total foreign trade volume, making it the most active regional trade sector globally.

The adjustment of trade policies in the technology field is more covert. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be fully implemented in 2026, imposing carbon tariffs on China's export products such as steel and aluminum, directly impacting China's "dual carbon" goals and industrial competitiveness. Meanwhile, the United States has joined forces with its Allies to build "technology alliances" in fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and has restricted China's technological upgrades through measures such as export controls and investment reviews. China's response strategy presents a "dual-track system" : On the one hand, precise countermeasures are implemented through legal tools such as the Foreign Relations Law and the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law; On the other hand, efforts should be made to promote rule-making in areas such as the digital economy and green energy. For instance, the Global Data Security Initiative led by China has been supported by over 80 countries, and the Digital RMB Cross-border Payment System (CIPS) covers more than 130 countries and regions.

Green trade policies are shifting from marginal issues to core rules. The CBAM of the European Union and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of the United States both link climate goals to trade, attempting to reshape the global industrial chain through "green thresholds". China takes "carbon neutrality" as an opportunity to promote the internationalization of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. In 2024, China's exports of new energy vehicles will account for 60% of the global total. Companies such as BYD and CATL have built factories in Europe, forming a new model of "technology export + local production". However, the fragmentation risk of green trade rules cannot be ignored. WTO data shows that 68 countries around the world have implemented carbon tariffs or similar policies, but the mutual recognition rate of standards is less than 30%. China needs to promote the implementation of the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" under the framework of the WTO and avoid green protectionism becoming a new type of trade barrier.

The underlying logic of the adjustment of global trade policies lies in the rebalancing of "economic security" and "efficiency" by various countries. China needs to respond to "anti-globalization" with "high-level opening up". The specific paths include: accelerating the reform of domestic rules, benchmarking against high-standard agreements such as the CPTPP and DEPA, and promoting institutional opening up in areas such as intellectual property rights and competition among state-owned enterprises; Deepen cooperation with RCEP and BRICS countries, and promote the internationalization of the RMB and local currency settlement; Propose a "Chinese solution" in the reform of the WTO and the formulation of digital trade rules to avoid falling into the predicament of being a "rule follower". There is no winner in the trade war, but the liberators will eventually prevail. In the volatile global trade landscape, only by breaking through with reform and breaking through with opening up can we navigate through the fog and reach a new shore.