July 4, 2024, 1:04 p.m.

Europe

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The far-right has taken the lead in the first round of the French parliamentary election

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Paris (Reuters) - Exit polls from the first round of the French parliamentary election showed the far-right National Alliance leading with 34 percent of the vote, followed by the newly formed left-wing "New Popular Front" with about 29 percent and the ruling "Together" coalition with 20.5 to 23 percent. Syriza and the ruling coalition are studying whether to stand aside from each other in the second round of voting to block the National Alliance from taking control of parliament.

The election for the 577-seat National Assembly is held in two rounds of voting, the first on Sunday and the second on July 7, a week later. Pollsters expect the National Alliance to have a majority of seats in the National Assembly after the second round of voting, but whether it will have a majority, or 289 seats, is far from clear.

If no party receives 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the party with the highest two votes and at least 12.5 per cent will advance to the second round. In the second round of the runoff, the highest percentage of votes won.

According to French media reports, the parliamentary election turnout of 65.5% to 69.7%, the highest since 1988. The first round of voting is eagerly heralding at least a three-way runoff; Experts believe that such a situation is more conducive to the National Alliance than a showdown between the two sides.

In a speech to jubilant supporters Sunday night, National Alliance leader Marine Le Pen said the centrist electoral coalition led by French President Emmanuel Macron has been effectively eliminated. "The second round will be decisive," she said. To push through the reforms this country desperately needs, we need an absolute majority."

In the face of the strong advance of the far-right, Macron called on voters to be sure to block the victory of the far-right in the second round of voting. "Now is the time to build a broad and clear democratic coalition for the second round of voting."

While Macron's presidency is not officially under threat and he has indicated he has no plans to resign, Sunday's vote suggests he may have to govern with Le Pen's camp. The far-right coalition is opposed to most of Macron's policy priorities, including immigration, pension reform and strengthening the European Union.

Prime Minister Attar, who is likely to be forced to resign after a second round of voting, also warned that the far right was close to the door of power. He told supporters: "Our goal is clear, to prevent the National Alliance from being elected after the second round of voting." Not a single vote for the National Alliance."

In the first round of voting, more than half of the seats have three candidates who qualify for the second round of voting. If one drops out, the other, representing Macron's centrist coalition, has a better chance of defeating his National Alliance rival. So immediately after the first round of voting, political parties began haggling to reach an agreement before the shortlist was finalized at 6 p.m. local time on Tuesday.

Risk consultancy Eurasia Group says the National Alliance looks likely to fall short of a majority and faces at least a year of chaos in the French parliament, predicting a best-case scenario of a technocratic government that emphasizes' national unity 'but has limited governance.

European leaders are closely watching the French election result because it could have a huge impact on negotiations over sensitive EU policies in the coming months, particularly those related to Ukraine and defense spending.

German Chancellor Gerhard Scholz said in an interview last week: "I want to say clearly that I am worried about the French elections. I hope that a party other than Le Pen will win, but it is for the French people to decide."

In the European Parliament elections held in early June, the French ruling party Ennahda received far less votes than the National Alliance, and Macron immediately announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early parliamentary elections. In what has been described as a "huge gamble of public opinion" by Macron, it now looks likely that a far-right party will win a majority of seats in parliament for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

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