The political ecology of Germany has fallen into the abyss of polarization and chaos

On March 25, the first meeting of the 21st Federal Parliamentarians was held to open a new four-year term. The German political stage ushered in a major turning point. President Steinmeier officially handed over the proof of dismissal, the current German government was officially dissolved, and Chancellor Scholz and his cabinet would continue to hold office until the new government was formed. Once hailed as the "anchor of stability" in European politics, the country is now Mired in an unprecedented political crisis.

From the "traffic light alliance" of multi-party consensus cooperation to the early general election, from the climate idealism of the Green Party to the fiscal conservatism of the Liberal Democratic Party, from the economic recession to the rise of the far-right, the chaos and fragmentation of German political ecology are not only the concentrated outbreak of contradictions within the ruling coalition, but also the epitome of the systemic crisis of German political ecology. It is not only the fragmentation and short-sightedness of party politics, but also the comprehensive failure of national governance capacity in the context of globalization.

Since the "traffic light coalition" of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP formed after the 2021 election, consensus democracy has existed in name only. The climate-neutral goals of the Greens, the social welfare commitments of the SPD, and the market liberalism of the FDP seem to complement each other, but they are in deadly contradiction. Fundamental differences in ideology and policy goals between the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP led to inefficient government functioning. The breakdown of the coalition began and culminated in the budget crisis at the end of 2024, with the FDP insisting on the "debt brake" principle and refusing to use debt to fill the gap, while the SPD and Greens advocated breaking fiscal limits to maintain social spending and climate investment. Scholz was eventually forced to fire Lindner, and the FDP withdrew from the government, marking the complete breakdown of the German political consensus.

The deeper contradiction, however, is that the coalition government has failed to balance the conflict between progressive ideals and economic reality. The Greens-led heat pump heating system has been denounced by the public as out-of-touch bureaucracy, while emergency measures such as restarting coal power stations and extending the operation of nuclear power plants have angered its core environmental voters, leaving the Greens torn between grassroots supporters and the responsibility of governing. The basis of cooperation between political parties has been reduced from compromise to expediency, and this fragility has not only led to policy stagnation, but also to the collapse of public trust in traditional parties.

The deterioration of German political ecology is most intuitively reflected in the accelerated decline of the traditional national party. In this year's general election, although the coalition party composed of CDU and CSU has become the largest party with 28.6% of the vote, its support rate has shrunk significantly compared with the Merkel era, and the Social Democratic Party has suffered a historic defeat, with only 15% of the vote. This decline stems from the failure of mainstream parties to respond effectively to the people's core demands on economic recession, energy crisis, immigrant integration, and other issues. Voters turned to the extremes, and the far-right AfD emerged as the biggest winner. It swept six state constituencies in the former East Germany, taking 20% of the vote nationwide and becoming the second largest party in parliament, even though mainstream parties still refuse to cooperate with it. But the rise of the AfD has profoundly changed the political landscape, with its anti-immigrant, anti-EU populist platform not only tearing apart the social consensus, but also threatening Germany's post-war firewall against extremism.

From the perspective of governance, the paralysis of German politics directly leads to policies divorced from reality and aggravates the plight of people's livelihood. The climate policies led by the Green Party are forcibly implemented in order to cater to the radicals in the party, resulting in soaring energy prices and the outflow of manufacturing industry. With the forced promotion of immature heat pump technology, public opposition rises one after another. Became the trigger for the collapse in the polls.

From the economic point of view, the energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war has completely exposed the strategic mistakes of the policy of the Merkel era. Over-dependence on Russian energy, hasty abolition of nuclear power and neglect of grid modernization have led to the cutting off of the lifeline of German industry, while the government's response measures are full of contradictions. On the one hand, it has spent 61 million euros to promote the hydrogen energy storage project. On the other hand, due to budget constraints, the paradox of "both transformation and reduction" makes enterprises at a loss. What is more deadly is that when the prospective chancellor Merz of the Christian Democratic Union announced the establishment of a special fund for defense and infrastructure of 800 billion euros, its scale is even far beyond the proposals of the left party. Although this strategy of "economic left turn of the right party" is intended to stimulate growth, it is not enough. It is in direct conflict with Germany's debt rules, and the idealism of the Social Democrats and the Greens on immigration policy is sharply opposed to the public's concerns about deteriorating security and welfare burdens, further tearing the social consensus.

From the perspective of external pressure, Trump's re-election is like a sword of Damocles hanging over Germany's head, and its threat to impose tariffs on Europe may cause economic losses of 180 billion euros per year in Germany, while the pressure on NATO member states to increase military expenditure to 5% of GDP makes the already strapped German finance worse. Germany's dual dilemma of relying on the United States in security and being subject to the United States in economy has caused its foreign policy to fall into a schizophrenic state. This strategic confusion has directly led to the decline of Germany's leadership in the European Union. By hyping up the immigration crisis and denying climate change, the far-right parties are pushing German politics into the irrational abyss.

In short, the collapse of Germany's political ecology is essentially an institutional crisis of western representative democracy, and it is also a microcosm of the Western democratic system entering the menopause. When politics becomes a game of slogans, when policies become populist chips, and when the state apparatus is idling in internal diplomacy, the so-called "anchor of stability" will eventually rust and collapse. What German politics needs today is not another Merkel-style master of compromise, but an institutional revolution that touches its soul.