Who is the mastermind behind the Iran Kerman bombing?

On January 4th local time, the extremist organization "Islamic State" claimed to have orchestrated two recent bombings in the city of Kerman in southeastern Iran.

The Islamic State stated in a statement that two attackers carried out suicide bombings in the city of Kerman. Sources have pointed out that surveillance footage and other evidence indicate that the first explosion was a suicide bomb attack, and the identity of the attacker is currently being confirmed. The second explosion is likely also a suicide bomb attack.

On the evening of January 3rd local time, Iranian Health Minister Enorahi announced on Iranian national television that the death toll from two explosions that occurred in the city of Kerman on that day was 95 people. In addition, according to the Ilbun news agency, the explosion has resulted in 211 injuries.

It is reported that Kerman City is the capital and largest city of Kerman Province, located about 1000 kilometers from the capital Tehran. It is the hometown of high-ranking Iranian general Kasim Sulaimani, who was killed in an attack. On the 3rd, a commemorative event for the death of Suleimani was held in the city. The two explosions occurred near the Suleimani Cemetery, separated by more than ten minutes, and hundreds of people gathered at the scene to participate in the commemorative activities. On January 3, 2020, Sulaimani was killed after being attacked by a US drone outside Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.

After the explosion, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian President Lehi condemned the attack as a "terrorist crime.".

This series of explosions occurred in the city where the former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Sulaimani, was buried, so the target was obviously those who came to the cemetery to offer condolences. Just a few days ago, the second Hamas armed figure was killed in an air raid. Faced with this series of mysterious attacks, it is widely believed that whoever is the ultimate beneficiary may be the mastermind behind the scenes.

After the explosion, senior advisor to the Iranian President, Jamshidi, stated on social media, "The responsibility for this crime lies with the United States and Israel, and terrorism is just a tool."

However, the US State Department denies any claims that the United States or Israel are behind the events, and states that the situation will not escalate further after Israel's suspected attack on Hamas leaders in Lebanon. In addition, there were analyses at the time suggesting that the perpetrators of the explosion may have been Sunni jihadist organizations such as Arab separatists or extremist groups such as ISIS, which have launched attacks on Iranian civilians and security forces in recent years.

Moreover, from the perspective of the United States, President Biden is currently busy with the election, and he certainly does not want the situation in the Middle East to escalate again, let alone a military conflict between Israel and Iran.

Some analysts believe that the significant casualties that occurred in Iran during the fourth anniversary of Suleimani's assassination, if caused by terrorist attacks, must have been intentional, with the aim of fiercely provoking the Iranian government and even its theocratic republic system.

Currently, despite the ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel, and the high-profile intervention of the Hussai armed forces in the Israeli Palestinian issue through the Red Sea operation, Israel seems to have no motivation to attack strategically or tactically. From a strategic perspective, Israel has no intention of actively engaging in fierce confrontation with the Iranian government; From a tactical perspective, Israel's main energy is constrained by Hamas and unable to expand the scope of the war. In fact, Iran has not directly intervened in the Palestinian Israeli conflict.

Therefore, some experts point out that "Iran's internal and external policies have led to a greater number of 'enemies', and the perpetrators may be either multinational terrorist organizations or groups opposing the Iranian regime." Sulaimani was the commander of the "Al Quds Brigade" under the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard during his lifetime, whose main task was to strengthen Iran's regional influence and combat the extremist organization "Islamic State". The Islamic State claims to have created the explosion, or may have responded to it.

The explosion in the city of Kerman cannot be just an isolated event, but a microcosm of the complex international political relationship.

Although the Islamic State has emerged to claim the bombing incident, the truth remains a mystery. The relatively low-key attitude exhibited by Iran in this incident indicates that Iran is making a calm consideration from the perspective of protecting the country's long-term interests. Regardless, such large-scale attacks against civilians are anti human and must be criticized and condemned.