Where will the future of the Korean Peninsula go?

On January 15th, the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea issued a decision to abolish North Korean affairs institutions such as the Committee for Peaceful Reunification of the Motherland and the Kumgang Mountain International Tourism Bureau. The decision points out that in the past 80 years, the path of North Korea's reunification with the motherland has been based on one nation, one country, and two systems. In sharp contrast, South Korea has designated "absorption and unification" and "institutional unification" as national policies. "Dealing with them will never achieve national unity."

At the same time, Kim Jong un, Chairman of the State Council of North Korea, stated that South Korea should be defined as the "number one enemy country" and "forever the main enemy" in the Constitution, and that "the Republic of Korea should be completely occupied, pacified, recaptured, and incorporated into the territory of the Republic in the event of war.".

In addition, Kim Jong un emphasized that relevant provisions should clearly prohibit residents from using words that mislead South Korea into being of the same ethnicity, such as "three thousand miles of beautiful scenery" and "80 million compatriots", and strengthen relevant education to regard South Korea as North Korea's "number one hostile country and eternal main enemy". At present, phrases such as "northern half", "autonomy, peaceful reunification, and national unity" should be removed from the Constitution. The constitution should be amended for this purpose and reviewed at the next Supreme People's Assembly.

Kim Jong un also stated that as a symbol of north-south exchange and cooperation, the Beijing Yi Railway Line should be completely cut off to an irreversible level in the North Korean section, in order to completely isolate all communication conditions between the border areas of South Korea and North Korea, and strictly implement them in stages. In addition, the "Three Charter Monuments for the Unification of the Motherland" located at the southern border of Pyongyang should be dismantled, completely abandoning the concept of "unity, reconciliation, and kinship" from the history of the Korean nation.

It should be pointed out that Kim Jong un explicitly stated at the meeting on the 15th of this year that he wants to clearly delineate the North Korean border and does not accept the "northern boundary". According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean side stated that it will firmly defend and safeguard this boundary. This is one of the main differences between the two sides.

At the beginning of the new year, why has North Korea made so many intensive decisions on the Korean Peninsula issue, why has North Korean relations suddenly become so tense, and where will the globally anticipated situation on the peninsula go?

In fact, the root cause of the current tension in the Korean Peninsula has a long history, and the reaction of North Korean leaders to the situation is the result of a series of games, which can be traced back to a series of actions by the United States, Japan, and South Korea against the situation on the peninsula last year.

In April 2023, the United States and South Korea issued the Washington Declaration, announcing the establishment of the "US South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group" mechanism. In the following months of July and December, the United States and South Korea held two "nuclear consultation group" meetings, taking the opportunity to expand the US South Korea nuclear crisis consultation, add US South Korea military training and simulation exercises. Last year, the United States resumed and expanded the deployment of strategic nuclear assets in the Korean Peninsula region, with nuclear powered aircraft carriers, submarines, and strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons appearing in the region.

In addition to the aforementioned series of actions, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are also intensifying their integration around the situation on the peninsula. These three countries not only promote North Korea's missile intelligence sharing mechanism and conduct maritime exercises, but also leverage the Camp David meeting between the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea held in August last year to accelerate the assembly of a military alliance among the three countries.

As a response to a series of actions taken by the United States, Japan, and South Korea, Kim Jong un pointed out at the 9th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea held at the end of 2023 that the anti North Korean confrontation activities of the United States and its followers have reached an unprecedented level, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula is on the brink of even more unpredictable danger.

Industry experts have pointed out that the most controversial point in the demarcation issue between North and South Korea is the "northern boundary". The latest statements from both North and South Korea may indicate an increased risk of confrontation or even conflict near the northern boundary. According to the latest definition of North Korea's relationship with South Korea, North Korea has identified South Korea as a potential major belligerent country, and the Kim Jong un administration no longer has expectations for reconciliation between North and South Korea during the administration of Yoon Seok yeol.

On the afternoon of the 14th, the North Korean Missile Administration successfully tested a medium to long range solid fuel ballistic missile, which is equipped with a hypersonic maneuvering warhead. After North Korea's mid to long range missile test, South Korea issued a stern warning to North Korea. On the 15th, the South Korean Ministry of Defense stated that this was a clear provocation. Once North Korea directly provokes South Korea, it will respond overwhelmingly according to the principle of "immediate, strong, and counter to the end".

From the current situation, Rome was not frozen in a day. The United States is attempting to shift its main focus back to the Asia Pacific region. However, due to the main focus of the United States and its allies on the Russo Ukrainian conflict, the Palestinian Israeli conflict, and controlling the situation in the Red Sea to combat the Yemeni Husai armed forces, the intensity of military deterrence in the direction of the peninsula may be limited. At the same time, North Korea's main goal is to consolidate its nuclear status, and as long as it believes it does not pose a sufficient threat to it, the possibility of taking intense confrontational actions is also low.